{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0a23a14-13d0-474d-a761-19baa505474f", "symbol": "IVOA", "name": "iShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term \u20ac Corp UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.205, "architecture_energy": 25.795, "architecture_maturity": 25.524, "architecture_confidence": 69.256, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.25, "rotation_up": 37.43, "upward_expansion": 64.1, "deceleration": 82.48, "rotation_down": 24.52, "downward_expansion": 14.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.677733, 5.678564, 5.670238, 5.662843 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.685, "trend_reference": 5.658367, "distance_from_trend": 0.004707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.450148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043091, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.899916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001939, "excess_performance": -0.168953, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004707, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002066, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001174, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020652, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001939, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.241216, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 296434, "relative_activity": 0.942593, "balance": 2.241216, "dry_up": 0.943487, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004195, "annualized_volatility": 0.018761, "from_high_reference": -0.005423, "from_low_reference": 0.020097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.658367, "fair_value_reference": 5.450148, "structural_low": 5.573, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.019497, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00602, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001759, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", 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5.661062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.685, "volume": 296434, "typical_volume": 314487.8, "trend": 5.658367, "fair_value": 5.450148, "relative_strength": -13.899916, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.204919, "energy": 25.794665, "activity_lines": [ 5.677733, 5.678564, 5.670238, 5.662843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }