{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0a23e39-cfc6-4314-8d78-5f83850c66a3", "symbol": "DE", "name": "Deere & Company", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.893, "architecture_energy": 28.736, "architecture_maturity": 46.175, "architecture_confidence": 85.624, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.78, "rotation_up": 39.76, "upward_expansion": 64.26, "deceleration": 85.47, "rotation_down": 23.94, "downward_expansion": 14.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 10512.909375, 10522.105178, 10321.293308, 10299.02166 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10735.0, "trend_reference": 10206.602417, "distance_from_trend": 0.05177, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8405.048006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277209, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.939224, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.068861, "excess_performance": 0.123528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05177, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062879, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277209, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050409, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099392, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149437, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068861, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.729968, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42, "relative_activity": 0.214889, "balance": 0.729968, "dry_up": 0.088258, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030177, "annualized_volatility": 0.280576, "from_high_reference": -0.073703, "from_low_reference": 0.295387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10206.602417, "fair_value_reference": 8405.048006, "structural_low": 9098.556442, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0238, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.036268, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.113513, "worst_return": -0.075651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025551, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.035796, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.178321, "worst_return": -0.132406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028489, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.075078, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.130949, "worst_return": -0.138515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005899, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.076442, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006445, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.22999, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054205, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-15", 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"relative_strength": 5.742554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.57317, "energy": 60.712792, "activity_lines": [ 10526.1715, 10416.280524, 10254.762967, 10240.544077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10406.0, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 248.85, "trend": 10149.421232, "fair_value": 8383.490909, "relative_strength": 6.524826, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.480141, "energy": 35.70048, "activity_lines": [ 10472.176042, 10450.124323, 10272.224959, 10261.242384 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10735.0, "volume": 42, "typical_volume": 195.45, "trend": 10206.602417, "fair_value": 8405.048006, "relative_strength": 9.939224, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.893138, "energy": 28.736066, "activity_lines": [ 10512.909375, 10522.105178, 10321.293308, 10299.02166 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }