{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0a3cf98-a4ba-4e43-9125-a0f8cd0d0561", "symbol": "301338", "name": "GKG Precision Machine Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.896, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.426, "architecture_energy": 78.473, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.29, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.29, "rotation_up": 8.2, "upward_expansion": 18.25, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 75.68, "downward_expansion": 91.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.364668, 113.790223, 130.13045, 136.329442 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 102.300003, "trend_reference": 138.149288, "distance_from_trend": -0.259497, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.153201, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.729408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.652567, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.183559, "excess_performance": -0.190959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.259497, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168998, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.729408, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.221242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066526, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.571589, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183559, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.97477, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32770393, "relative_activity": 1.30511, "balance": 0.97477, "dry_up": 1.084846, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.268586, "annualized_volatility": 1.141603, "from_high_reference": -0.515143, "from_low_reference": 1.02094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 138.149288, "fair_value_reference": 59.153201, "structural_low": 72.910004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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56.540521, "relative_strength": 36.267489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.02907, "energy": 31.189001, "activity_lines": [ 161.994839, 158.409866, 154.201457, 147.110284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 157.0, "volume": 5182982, "typical_volume": 24171433.2, "trend": 134.484288, "fair_value": 57.302658, "relative_strength": 36.124802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.926931, "energy": 18.664628, "activity_lines": [ 159.092814, 159.147618, 154.585083, 148.758094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 122.620003, "volume": 28312846, "typical_volume": 24809876.1, "trend": 136.359288, "fair_value": 57.847328, "relative_strength": 9.089961, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.990217, "energy": 7.329566, "activity_lines": [ 146.075335, 153.090378, 151.552994, 147.992656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 96.18, "volume": 22817051, "typical_volume": 24968943.55, "trend": 137.399954, "fair_value": 58.217119, "relative_strength": -6.801214, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.297244, "energy": 36.754929, "activity_lines": [ 128.313335, 142.506031, 146.016239, 145.400444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.889999, "volume": 27354809, "typical_volume": 24481263.8, "trend": 138.044288, "fair_value": 58.572096, "relative_strength": -11.986356, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.828794, "energy": 65.322427, "activity_lines": [ 112.179334, 132.124514, 140.325817, 142.464318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.330002, "volume": 26016630, "typical_volume": 24478308.55, "trend": 137.676288, "fair_value": 58.814905, "relative_strength": -24.211542, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.951821, "energy": 75.200922, "activity_lines": [ 96.666001, 120.182047, 133.825443, 138.611783 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.300003, "volume": 32770393, "typical_volume": 25109289.55, "trend": 138.149288, "fair_value": 59.153201, "relative_strength": -6.652567, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.425591, "energy": 78.472573, "activity_lines": [ 94.364668, 113.790223, 130.13045, 136.329442 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }