{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0ad7f93-8a73-487f-ab09-ad5dfc60661c", "symbol": "OCSL", "name": "Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.601, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.827, "architecture_energy": 52.234, "architecture_maturity": 17.3, "architecture_confidence": 72.942, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.3, "rotation_up": 60.76, "upward_expansion": 81.78, "deceleration": 50.03, "rotation_down": 18.83, "downward_expansion": 10.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.18, 12.054379, 11.933779, 11.766056 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.96, "trend_reference": 11.610338, "distance_from_trend": 0.116247, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.982611, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.001742, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.496662, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.139249, "excess_performance": -0.048205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116247, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008394, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.001742, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097375, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136342, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139249, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.859318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4089133, "relative_activity": 1.130821, "balance": 0.859318, "dry_up": 0.746821, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044146, "annualized_volatility": 0.294972, "from_high_reference": -0.011442, "from_low_reference": 0.25453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.610338, "fair_value_reference": 12.982611, "structural_low": 10.330563, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.002029, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.008482, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.058157, "worst_return": -0.111574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000685, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012879, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.077082, "worst_return": -0.083431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.061681, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.141088, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.15483, "worst_return": -0.113195, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 52.570984, "activity_lines": [ 12.053333, 11.896978, 11.813182, 11.67093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.68, "volume": 2375370, "typical_volume": 3845397.65, "trend": 11.5919, "fair_value": 13.002666, "relative_strength": -9.744517, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.508249, "energy": 45.209677, "activity_lines": [ 11.963333, 11.876192, 11.819875, 11.675958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.61, "volume": 2069506, "typical_volume": 3660538.5, "trend": 11.581586, "fair_value": 12.987913, "relative_strength": -10.33797, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.749841, "energy": 17.788364, "activity_lines": [ 11.844, 11.844118, 11.815419, 11.677126 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.96, "volume": 4089133, "typical_volume": 3616074.75, "trend": 11.610338, "fair_value": 12.982611, "relative_strength": -4.496662, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.82732, "energy": 52.233538, "activity_lines": [ 12.18, 12.054379, 11.933779, 11.766056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }