{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0ba316e-94ba-485c-9a85-ed01f3f5223c", "symbol": "BNTC", "name": "Benitec Biopharma Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.594, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.937, "architecture_energy": 25.809, "architecture_maturity": 32.25, "architecture_confidence": 48.783, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.12, "rotation_up": 41.95, "upward_expansion": 68.45, "deceleration": 66.73, "rotation_down": 27.07, "downward_expansion": 11.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.558667, 12.515818, 12.209333, 12.009527 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.63, "trend_reference": 11.816667, "distance_from_trend": 0.153456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.841369, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.38497, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.382776, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.124587, "excess_performance": -0.062866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153456, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011916, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.38497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040994, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154462, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124587, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.314743, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 386029, "relative_activity": 0.753085, "balance": 2.314743, "dry_up": 0.763877, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112707, "annualized_volatility": 0.586251, "from_high_reference": -0.186754, "from_low_reference": 0.383756 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.816667, "fair_value_reference": 9.841369, "structural_low": 9.85, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.048023, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.053789, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.332515, "worst_return": -0.237251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.091401, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.019626, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.411919, "worst_return": -0.244552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.22281, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.100537, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.645018, "worst_return": -0.251211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 679969.4, "trend": 11.749833, "fair_value": 9.53864, "relative_strength": -8.097631, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.118222, "energy": 25.910438, "activity_lines": [ 12.329333, 11.927091, 11.828524, 11.746387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.42, "volume": 483620, "typical_volume": 658772.2, "trend": 11.797833, "fair_value": 9.599613, "relative_strength": -7.95982, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.544585, "energy": 51.671519, "activity_lines": [ 12.838, 12.222, 11.998762, 11.85414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.78, "volume": 338063, "typical_volume": 645177.5, "trend": 11.8405, "fair_value": 9.657779, "relative_strength": -8.425421, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.628759, "energy": 57.198243, "activity_lines": [ 12.942, 12.373818, 12.09481, 11.917505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.47, "volume": 493651, "typical_volume": 599755.55, "trend": 11.786167, "fair_value": 9.711049, "relative_strength": -16.234149, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.759918, "energy": 41.473356, "activity_lines": [ 12.502667, 12.278364, 12.057143, 11.893602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.71, "volume": 348502, "typical_volume": 556673.5, "trend": 11.757, "fair_value": 9.77201, "relative_strength": -14.716046, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.65036, "energy": 15.217991, "activity_lines": [ 12.188667, 12.226909, 12.041714, 11.888688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.63, "volume": 386029, "typical_volume": 512597.15, "trend": 11.816667, "fair_value": 9.841369, "relative_strength": -5.382776, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.937415, "energy": 25.808719, "activity_lines": [ 12.558667, 12.515818, 12.209333, 12.009527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }