{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0c21789-994d-4d43-8bd7-ce5a2034417e", "symbol": "VEUR", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.87, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.109, "architecture_energy": 66.828, "architecture_maturity": 23.811, "architecture_confidence": 82.498, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.38, "rotation_up": 63.02, "upward_expansion": 85.81, "deceleration": 49.79, "rotation_down": 19.98, "downward_expansion": 12.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.006999, 42.782542, 42.220105, 41.803936 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43.799999, "trend_reference": 41.41786, "distance_from_trend": 0.057515, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.639487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.264453, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.958943, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061994, "excess_performance": 0.010759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057515, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02811, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.264453, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054269, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009589, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014488, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061994, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.994049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68097, "relative_activity": 0.556852, "balance": 0.994049, "dry_up": 1.487628, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019225, "annualized_volatility": 0.161219, "from_high_reference": -0.006127, "from_low_reference": 0.217133 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.41786, "fair_value_reference": 34.639487, "structural_low": 37.375, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.008161, "positive_rate": 0.675676, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": -0.000101, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.100834, "worst_return": -0.095738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013796, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.003009, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.067651, "worst_return": -0.043554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.061994, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.008827, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.137566, "worst_return": -0.109066, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.634797, "energy": 54.511421, "activity_lines": [ 42.472333, 42.28622, 41.695603, 41.438984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.575001, "volume": 146185, "typical_volume": 148740.05, "trend": 41.214897, "fair_value": 34.4499, "relative_strength": -0.323142, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.082409, "energy": 50.92952, "activity_lines": [ 42.488667, 42.389238, 41.831912, 41.533249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.924999, "volume": 89422, "typical_volume": 141241.8, "trend": 41.314454, "fair_value": 34.541867, "relative_strength": -0.742189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.463306, "energy": 44.257873, "activity_lines": [ 42.621, 42.519374, 41.991821, 41.643578 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.799999, "volume": 68097, "typical_volume": 122289.15, "trend": 41.41786, "fair_value": 34.639487, "relative_strength": 0.958943, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.109155, "energy": 66.828306, "activity_lines": [ 43.006999, 42.782542, 42.220105, 41.803936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }