{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0c746cf-aa6c-47db-a723-0bfab7a2dc4a", "symbol": "VWO", "name": "VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX FUND INC FTSE EMERGING MARKETS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.173, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.465, "architecture_energy": 22.495, "architecture_maturity": 19.806, "architecture_confidence": 82.308, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.49, "rotation_up": 32.64, "upward_expansion": 61.59, "deceleration": 91.32, "rotation_down": 31.28, "downward_expansion": 15.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.088, 59.069514, 58.99016, 58.336563 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 60.47, "trend_reference": 57.642414, "distance_from_trend": 0.049054, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.312804, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.934368, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057294, "excess_performance": -0.068331, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049054, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032738, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057294, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.672967, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37380294, "relative_activity": 0.897471, "balance": 1.672967, "dry_up": 0.891831, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035246, "annualized_volatility": 0.193101, "from_high_reference": -0.016988, "from_low_reference": 0.228466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.642414, "fair_value_reference": 46.312804, "structural_low": 52.139084, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008271, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.102302, "worst_return": -0.0824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003974, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.033225, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.099192, "worst_return": -0.037903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.025041, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133898, "worst_return": -0.049273, "sufficient": 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59.25022, 59.228869, 58.393671, 57.765915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 59.89, "volume": 47381141, "typical_volume": 47736027.6, "trend": 57.054954, "fair_value": 45.785098, "relative_strength": -1.580143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.745631, "energy": 34.41315, "activity_lines": [ 59.491367, 59.348571, 58.618414, 57.963962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 57.84, "volume": 44652336, "typical_volume": 47651716.05, "trend": 57.214686, "fair_value": 45.913772, "relative_strength": -3.424068, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.218745, "energy": 16.26925, "activity_lines": [ 58.920667, 59.07793, 58.641116, 58.01461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.8, "volume": 30740952, "typical_volume": 44605657.2, "trend": 57.342787, "fair_value": 46.032352, "relative_strength": -2.911649, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.764562, "energy": 14.084102, "activity_lines": [ 58.446, 58.847823, 58.660925, 58.052372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.75, "volume": 35807990, "typical_volume": 42707445.2, "trend": 57.472257, "fair_value": 46.164284, "relative_strength": -2.388668, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.545837, "energy": 13.668757, "activity_lines": [ 58.486, 58.80084, 58.75505, 58.14316 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.47, "volume": 37380294, "typical_volume": 41650690.95, "trend": 57.642414, "fair_value": 46.312804, "relative_strength": -2.934368, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.465116, "energy": 22.494962, "activity_lines": [ 59.088, 59.069514, 58.99016, 58.336563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }