{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0cc54db-6f07-441b-b5e3-966c0acff650", "symbol": "605018", "name": "Changhua Holding Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.807, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.162, "architecture_energy": 27.972, "architecture_maturity": 6.466, "architecture_confidence": 47.132, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.68, "rotation_up": 17.26, "upward_expansion": 17.94, "deceleration": 61.41, "rotation_down": 62.92, "downward_expansion": 42.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.927333, 12.711367, 13.186825, 12.934107 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.74, "trend_reference": 12.571856, "distance_from_trend": 0.013375, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.688717, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.029677, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.123457, "excess_performance": 0.166661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013375, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064428, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191911, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056453, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050297, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05475, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123457, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.71617, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25367800, "relative_activity": 0.693033, "balance": 0.71617, "dry_up": 0.881233, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149669, "annualized_volatility": 0.622973, "from_high_reference": -0.274273, "from_low_reference": 0.274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.571856, "fair_value_reference": 10.688717, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0103, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011348, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.073429, "worst_return": -0.134298, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033058, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.033811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035265, "worst_return": -0.016309, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.173435, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.171757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067811, "worst_return": -0.229796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069409, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11194, "active": false 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.947833, "energy": 20.444786, "activity_lines": [ 14.029778, 14.378575, 13.670123, 13.149081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.42, "volume": 34119700, "typical_volume": 36213647.5, "trend": 12.522189, "fair_value": 10.666532, "relative_strength": -2.512222, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.402514, "energy": 16.585551, "activity_lines": [ 13.055626, 13.862319, 13.516525, 13.079133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.11, "volume": 30127500, "typical_volume": 35869023.05, "trend": 12.522523, "fair_value": 10.668889, "relative_strength": -5.933409, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.898582, "energy": 29.363377, "activity_lines": [ 12.248667, 13.317984, 13.339831, 12.988024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.48, "volume": 39411700, "typical_volume": 36507888.05, "trend": 12.533189, "fair_value": 10.674423, "relative_strength": -2.910724, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.795204, "energy": 33.021898, "activity_lines": [ 11.817333, 12.878081, 13.202899, 12.920765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.74, "volume": 25367800, "typical_volume": 36604039.55, "trend": 12.571856, "fair_value": 10.688717, "relative_strength": 5.029677, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.161862, "energy": 27.972317, "activity_lines": [ 11.927333, 12.711367, 13.186825, 12.934107 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }