{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0d241a7-3cad-469c-bcda-99bfbae7e95e", "symbol": "LFS", "name": "Latitude Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.118, "architecture_energy": 45.968, "architecture_maturity": 61.505, "architecture_confidence": 90.405, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.06, "rotation_up": 16.16, "upward_expansion": 11.22, "deceleration": 37.43, "rotation_down": 55.75, "downward_expansion": 79.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.901, 0.906364, 0.910548, 0.912311 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.9, "trend_reference": 0.917261, "distance_from_trend": -0.018818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.017837, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115772, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.420072, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02384, "excess_performance": -0.087546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04587, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115772, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124201, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040597, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02384, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.343668, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247945, "relative_activity": 2.369541, "balance": 1.343668, "dry_up": 1.378997, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025214, "annualized_volatility": 0.178573, "from_high_reference": -0.180195, "from_low_reference": 0.094653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.917261, "fair_value_reference": 1.017837, "structural_low": 0.822178, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001923, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.001659, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.119043, "worst_return": -0.130434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.012712, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.021675, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.123502, "worst_return": -0.054649, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024868, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.04486, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.046551, "worst_return": -0.069897, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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[ 0.916333, 0.914182, 0.91623, 0.918551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.915, "volume": 44110, "typical_volume": 140693.0, "trend": 0.927713, "fair_value": 1.021012, "relative_strength": -7.253889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.582076, "energy": 12.005752, "activity_lines": [ 0.916, 0.914273, 0.916161, 0.917583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.89, "volume": 61474, "typical_volume": 127275.95, "trend": 0.923795, "fair_value": 1.019902, "relative_strength": -9.237903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.579696, "energy": 29.787046, "activity_lines": [ 0.907, 0.91, 0.913609, 0.91515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9, "volume": 223655, "typical_volume": 124896.5, "trend": 0.920211, "fair_value": 1.018855, "relative_strength": -9.975322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.661675, "energy": 40.213507, "activity_lines": [ 0.903667, 0.907909, 0.912071, 0.913615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9, "volume": 247945, "typical_volume": 104638.4, "trend": 0.917261, "fair_value": 1.017837, "relative_strength": -12.420072, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.118153, "energy": 45.968116, "activity_lines": [ 0.901, 0.906364, 0.910548, 0.912311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }