{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0d29753-7eed-4d31-9430-4ab2b0560fd2", "symbol": "MSFD", "name": "DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.003, "architecture_energy": 75.705, "architecture_maturity": 21.81, "architecture_confidence": 77.419, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.37, "rotation_up": 11.1, "upward_expansion": 17.59, "deceleration": 34.58, "rotation_down": 71.44, "downward_expansion": 83.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.87912, 12.684165, 12.92228, 13.13641 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.3, "trend_reference": 13.24981, "distance_from_trend": -0.22263, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.06715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.211764, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.876438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.245149, "excess_performance": -0.432603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.22263, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044425, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.211764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185011, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173817, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.245149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.827216, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17048680, "relative_activity": 1.862944, "balance": 0.827216, "dry_up": 1.029187, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109526, "annualized_volatility": 0.452789, "from_high_reference": -0.328119, "from_low_reference": 0.029706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.24981, "fair_value_reference": 13.06715, "structural_low": 10.2001, 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8598402.95, "trend": 13.014447, "fair_value": 13.189792, "relative_strength": 2.874872, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.605896, "energy": 34.565668, "activity_lines": [ 13.726531, 13.300578, 13.410547, 13.333424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.5569, "volume": 5130370, "typical_volume": 8583971.15, "trend": 13.085116, "fair_value": 13.175519, "relative_strength": -2.954842, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.396717, "energy": 32.758994, "activity_lines": [ 13.80302, 13.388088, 13.41066, 13.368421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.7607, "volume": 3906908, "typical_volume": 8680367.75, "trend": 13.159031, "fair_value": 13.164916, "relative_strength": -3.174627, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.560627, "energy": 34.549771, "activity_lines": [ 13.836392, 13.496283, 13.430602, 13.412007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.44, "volume": 3278546, "typical_volume": 8675835.45, "trend": 13.22785, "fair_value": 13.151854, "relative_strength": -1.334602, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.841694, "energy": 25.833669, "activity_lines": [ 13.698513, 13.531571, 13.419955, 13.430134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.8687, "volume": 3542533, "typical_volume": 8676699.45, "trend": 13.311718, "fair_value": 13.140099, "relative_strength": 3.331157, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.831856, "energy": 20.811348, "activity_lines": [ 13.717293, 13.636036, 13.452298, 13.471479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.11, "volume": 13804545, "typical_volume": 8799926.0, "trend": 13.29186, "fair_value": 13.107374, "relative_strength": -17.446294, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.921166, "energy": 29.388967, "activity_lines": [ 12.828207, 13.218228, 13.219422, 13.329433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.3, "volume": 17048680, "typical_volume": 9151472.7, "trend": 13.24981, "fair_value": 13.06715, "relative_strength": -26.876438, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.002608, "energy": 75.705465, "activity_lines": [ 11.87912, 12.684165, 12.92228, 13.13641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }