{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0d9235f-4ff0-40b1-b424-54e065db3acb", "symbol": "MWOF", "name": "Amundi Core MSCI World UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.919, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.702, "architecture_energy": 63.499, "architecture_maturity": 50.07, "architecture_confidence": 78.71, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.85, "rotation_up": 56.19, "upward_expansion": 80.78, "deceleration": 64.06, "rotation_down": 26.14, "downward_expansion": 9.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.201634, 18.092237, 17.907091, 17.587195 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.679001, "trend_reference": 17.231029, "distance_from_trend": 0.084033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.027741, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.331576, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.517062, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116873, "excess_performance": 0.052234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084033, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035923, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.331576, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012284, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035171, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067408, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116873, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.445243, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43953, "relative_activity": 0.776492, "balance": 1.445243, "dry_up": 0.652186, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018348, "annualized_volatility": 0.13211, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.232149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.231029, "fair_value_reference": 14.027741, "structural_low": 15.4955, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.010952, "positive_rate": 0.678571, "directional_follow_through": 0.678571, "median_excess_return": -0.000886, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.047402, "worst_return": -0.08863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.049898, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.014382, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.078663, "worst_return": -0.056814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100809, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.047484, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.122139, "worst_return": 0.036622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.810608, "energy": 69.153446, "activity_lines": [ 17.9505, 17.830136, 17.33594, 17.109807 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 17.722, "volume": 58451, "typical_volume": 47939.4, "trend": 16.890252, "fair_value": 13.742369, "relative_strength": 6.354895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.939798, "energy": 52.817434, "activity_lines": [ 17.8726, 17.836791, 17.402995, 17.166657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.080999, "volume": 91006, "typical_volume": 50875.85, "trend": 16.94866, "fair_value": 13.791379, "relative_strength": 3.622102, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.988206, "energy": 55.367353, "activity_lines": [ 17.926566, 17.901127, 17.49949, 17.243479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.116501, "volume": 15197, "typical_volume": 51266.15, "trend": 17.011033, "fair_value": 13.83846, "relative_strength": 6.447475, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.050428, "energy": 58.987753, "activity_lines": [ 17.9948, 17.955264, 17.592995, 17.318824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.952999, "volume": 31152, "typical_volume": 52288.9, "trend": 17.065093, "fair_value": 13.884243, "relative_strength": 6.168677, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.352949, "energy": 56.018802, "activity_lines": [ 17.9934, 17.963691, 17.664831, 17.379596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.919001, "volume": 11150, "typical_volume": 52215.7, "trend": 17.113014, "fair_value": 13.929124, "relative_strength": 4.578779, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.056911, "energy": 53.937369, "activity_lines": [ 17.976033, 17.961009, 17.728169, 17.434687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.9625, "volume": 61412, "typical_volume": 54798.55, "trend": 17.164607, "fair_value": 13.975912, "relative_strength": 2.462149, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.544316, "energy": 47.566411, "activity_lines": [ 17.977433, 17.962009, 17.788024, 17.489492 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.679001, "volume": 43953, "typical_volume": 56604.6, "trend": 17.231029, "fair_value": 14.027741, "relative_strength": 3.517062, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.701894, "energy": 63.49917, "activity_lines": [ 18.201634, 18.092237, 17.907091, 17.587195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }