{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0dbd45f-c33f-4e03-a36a-643d148e1d21", "symbol": "002222", "name": "CASTECH Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.169, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.865, "architecture_energy": 72.144, "architecture_maturity": 22.652, "architecture_confidence": 71.604, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.88, "rotation_up": 16.06, "upward_expansion": 25.1, "deceleration": 43.02, "rotation_down": 75.28, "downward_expansion": 66.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.132666, 68.173648, 79.783699, 79.921167 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 62.07, "trend_reference": 78.386654, "distance_from_trend": -0.208156, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.296674, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.540326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.696695, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.11556, "excess_performance": -0.12296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.208156, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117972, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.540326, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.520566, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.767962, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.11556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.232049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 171192664, "relative_activity": 1.176385, "balance": 0.232049, "dry_up": 1.112839, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208486, "annualized_volatility": 0.791531, "from_high_reference": -0.501846, "from_low_reference": 0.631033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.386654, "fair_value_reference": 40.296674, "structural_low": 47.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.047897, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.020275, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.288004, "worst_return": -0.122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.186355, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.047177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318084, "worst_return": 0.01406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.558546, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.382652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.315867, "worst_return": -0.174372, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 1.016792, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.880716, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.23677, "worst_return": -0.004657, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034884, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086485, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017352, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002819, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04751, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112446, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.18235, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 75.974553, 84.541081, 87.983169, 84.322453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.990002, "volume": 134196500, "typical_volume": 133189209.05, "trend": 78.493654, "fair_value": 39.902808, "relative_strength": -12.201146, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.772978, "energy": 65.818579, "activity_lines": [ 67.129844, 78.191998, 85.232267, 82.862413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.029999, "volume": 219049689, "typical_volume": 140663989.95, "trend": 78.195654, "fair_value": 40.059205, "relative_strength": -22.052723, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.15019, "energy": 74.256474, "activity_lines": [ 59.090176, 71.48346, 81.854364, 80.961532 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.07, "volume": 171192664, "typical_volume": 145524348.2, "trend": 78.386654, "fair_value": 40.296674, "relative_strength": -6.696695, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.865149, "energy": 72.144108, "activity_lines": [ 58.132666, 68.173648, 79.783699, 79.921167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }