{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0dcc771-5ce2-4a38-b6c3-6e9d3221522c", "symbol": "COTY", "name": "Coty Inc.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.859, "architecture_energy": 65.831, "architecture_maturity": 17.639, "architecture_confidence": 58.8, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.83, "rotation_up": 74.37, "upward_expansion": 63.49, "deceleration": 21.14, "rotation_down": 16.25, "downward_expansion": 21.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.332667, 2.168182, 2.035031, 2.014814 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.42, "trend_reference": 2.06751, "distance_from_trend": 0.17049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.060582, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.600698, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.098091, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111366, "excess_performance": 0.058055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17049, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11615, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.600698, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070503, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214966, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111366, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.270916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2334, "relative_activity": 0.221383, "balance": 2.270916, "dry_up": 1.043082, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110617, "annualized_volatility": 0.685875, "from_high_reference": -0.443678, "from_low_reference": 0.5125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.06751, "fair_value_reference": 6.060582, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.5625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008696, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025424, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 10.45, "volume": 2161845, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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"fair_value": 6.085015, "relative_strength": -13.534987, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.809616, "energy": 52.724724, "activity_lines": [ 2.262667, 2.086909, 1.988859, 1.992659 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.42, "volume": 2334, "typical_volume": 10542.8, "trend": 2.06751, "fair_value": 6.060582, "relative_strength": -12.098091, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.858983, "energy": 65.831427, "activity_lines": [ 2.332667, 2.168182, 2.035031, 2.014814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }