{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0de2e3f-90c0-4d6c-b02f-46f2afc58e06", "symbol": "LUC", "name": "Lucara Diamond Corp.", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.527, "architecture_energy": 43.69, "architecture_maturity": 82.169, "architecture_confidence": 86.59, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.59, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 20.44, "deceleration": 46.61, "rotation_down": 32.34, "downward_expansion": 63.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.1448, 1.129164, 1.253114, 1.38132 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.138, "trend_reference": 1.5266, "distance_from_trend": -0.254553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.371853, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.520206, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.227547, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304401, "excess_performance": -0.365895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.254553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034246, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.520206, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.302275, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.271649, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2482094, "relative_activity": 1.7022, "balance": 0.271649, "dry_up": 1.509059, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121536, "annualized_volatility": 0.509561, "from_high_reference": -0.521849, "from_low_reference": 0.124506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.5266, "fair_value_reference": 2.371853, "structural_low": 1.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.023973, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.019537, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.380165, "worst_return": -0.354143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.056604, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.067647, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.487138, "worst_return": -0.413051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.127586, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.157198, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.537549, "worst_return": -0.465256, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097421, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109155, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.495591, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": 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87.561984, "activity_lines": [ 1.089467, 1.210545, 1.423486, 1.510955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.104, "volume": 1828017, "typical_volume": 1427705.4, "trend": 1.549333, "fair_value": 2.421955, "relative_strength": -32.369168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.132038, "energy": 85.736717, "activity_lines": [ 1.0924, 1.168764, 1.378295, 1.481953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.19, "volume": 3280034, "typical_volume": 1498790.6, "trend": 1.546133, "fair_value": 2.409423, "relative_strength": -25.712655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.200648, "energy": 57.580912, "activity_lines": [ 1.130533, 1.153418, 1.345238, 1.45877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.146, "volume": 694676, "typical_volume": 1436051.35, "trend": 1.542, "fair_value": 2.396256, "relative_strength": -28.807083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.417502, "energy": 47.115349, "activity_lines": [ 1.144667, 1.138473, 1.31161, 1.432955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.14, "volume": 2345044, "typical_volume": 1491490.0, "trend": 1.536333, "fair_value": 2.384622, "relative_strength": -29.412287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.748506, "energy": 46.357875, "activity_lines": [ 1.148667, 1.130364, 1.280762, 1.407019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.138, "volume": 2482094, "typical_volume": 1458168.6, "trend": 1.5266, "fair_value": 2.371853, "relative_strength": -30.227547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.526506, "energy": 43.69042, "activity_lines": [ 1.1448, 1.129164, 1.253114, 1.38132 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }