{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0de7ebe-ebae-4a19-90da-bf9b2649c266", "symbol": "600814", "name": "Hangzhou Jiebai Group Co., Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.477, "architecture_energy": 41.049, "architecture_maturity": 83.56, "architecture_confidence": 62.452, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.99, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 18.66, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 40.92, "downward_expansion": 68.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.502545, 6.463644, 6.756214, 7.066343 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.55, "trend_reference": 7.514782, "distance_from_trend": -0.128385, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.212801, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091892, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.430715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187345, "excess_performance": -0.144141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128385, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054909, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091892, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142173, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029813, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.641775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22723020, "relative_activity": 0.888383, "balance": 0.641775, "dry_up": 1.1315, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061508, "annualized_volatility": 0.584366, "from_high_reference": -0.414132, "from_low_reference": 0.077083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.514782, "fair_value_reference": 7.212801, "structural_low": 6.081242, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.011401, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.01366, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.19211, "worst_return": -0.1608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.108878, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.070345, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.22087, "worst_return": -0.193548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.135537, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.069159, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185535, "worst_return": -0.015428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.571827, "energy": 78.018177, "activity_lines": [ 6.372902, 6.555651, 6.948835, 7.287591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.23, "volume": 27001100, "typical_volume": 28703897.7, "trend": 7.623115, "fair_value": 7.235866, "relative_strength": -15.746981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.80752, "energy": 66.51189, "activity_lines": [ 6.326773, 6.461224, 6.851295, 7.192121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.69, "volume": 33141896, "typical_volume": 27276042.7, "trend": 7.566448, "fair_value": 7.225945, "relative_strength": -9.541883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.820428, "energy": 52.491524, "activity_lines": [ 6.457626, 6.470434, 6.807088, 7.13192 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.55, "volume": 22723020, "typical_volume": 25577963.6, "trend": 7.514782, "fair_value": 7.212801, "relative_strength": -13.430715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.477105, "energy": 41.048622, "activity_lines": [ 6.502545, 6.463644, 6.756214, 7.066343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }