{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0e10f80-b97b-4dc3-83ff-6f083a8130b4", "symbol": "SAEM", "name": "iShares MSCI EM IMI Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.049, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.33, "architecture_energy": 18.057, "architecture_maturity": 64.578, "architecture_confidence": 81.84, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.0, "rotation_up": 16.26, "upward_expansion": 45.34, "deceleration": 87.91, "rotation_down": 42.74, "downward_expansion": 30.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.1542, 10.322345, 10.349398, 10.141254 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.32, "trend_reference": 9.878233, "distance_from_trend": 0.044721, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.395352, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395471, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.447998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09624, "excess_performance": 0.045004, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044721, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068204, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395471, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03448, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146895, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09624, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.391838, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 791616, "relative_activity": 0.431128, "balance": 0.391838, "dry_up": 1.523238, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047097, "annualized_volatility": 0.263543, "from_high_reference": -0.070773, "from_low_reference": 0.338174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.878233, "fair_value_reference": 7.395352, "structural_low": 8.495, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.011999, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.033672, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.145295, "worst_return": -0.045414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.05204, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043484, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.224746, "worst_return": 0.009113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.044026, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020632, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094061, "worst_return": 0.025587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.576, "volume": 477098, "typical_volume": 2015963.3, "trend": 9.696167, "fair_value": 7.289884, "relative_strength": 10.907359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.321155, "energy": 48.15739, "activity_lines": [ 10.686267, 10.649764, 10.325417, 10.05953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.94, "volume": 8098387, "typical_volume": 2221068.7, "trend": 9.745, "fair_value": 7.315596, "relative_strength": 3.058544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.103341, "energy": 21.28776, "activity_lines": [ 10.4236, 10.529673, 10.321819, 10.075261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.043, "volume": 1040077, "typical_volume": 2094568.7, "trend": 9.793567, "fair_value": 7.340602, "relative_strength": 2.624726, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.315393, "energy": 21.139643, "activity_lines": [ 10.2472, 10.440309, 10.327788, 10.094487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.032, "volume": 1257498, "typical_volume": 2004435.35, "trend": 9.83355, "fair_value": 7.366461, "relative_strength": 1.073744, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.961766, "energy": 20.158822, "activity_lines": [ 10.133067, 10.352055, 10.327538, 10.10987 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.32, "volume": 791616, "typical_volume": 1836150.25, "trend": 9.878233, "fair_value": 7.395352, "relative_strength": 3.447998, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.329762, "energy": 18.057251, "activity_lines": [ 10.1542, 10.322345, 10.349398, 10.141254 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }