{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0e378ab-a8d4-4458-a62e-3100442b6c7a", "symbol": "002705", "name": "Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.731, "architecture_energy": 43.393, "architecture_maturity": 53.461, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.37, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 20.88, "deceleration": 32.22, "rotation_down": 36.33, "downward_expansion": 68.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.649333, 11.50559, 12.226748, 12.829561 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.06, "trend_reference": 13.486296, "distance_from_trend": -0.105759, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.368427, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.694706, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.16482, "excess_performance": -0.17222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105759, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074234, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16066, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02729, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16482, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.442684, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64695859, "relative_activity": 0.853354, "balance": 0.442684, "dry_up": 0.578025, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069967, "annualized_volatility": 0.477338, "from_high_reference": -0.371401, "from_low_reference": 0.132394 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.486296, "fair_value_reference": 14.368427, "structural_low": 10.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.018072, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.007425, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.40257, "worst_return": -0.149749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.142441, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.092249, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.302785, "worst_return": -0.120675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.02568, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.020105, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.199041, "worst_return": -0.235901, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 36117581, "typical_volume": 73409831.25, "trend": 13.642296, "fair_value": 14.430196, "relative_strength": -23.548332, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.209905, "energy": 61.845563, "activity_lines": [ 11.224667, 11.377399, 12.47688, 13.043234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.83, "volume": 38689394, "typical_volume": 73842871.75, "trend": 13.55963, "fair_value": 14.396869, "relative_strength": -16.715934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.709905, "energy": 61.487347, "activity_lines": [ 11.434, 11.412741, 12.335885, 12.926311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.06, "volume": 64695859, "typical_volume": 75813664.35, "trend": 13.486296, "fair_value": 14.368427, "relative_strength": -18.694706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.730796, "energy": 43.392816, "activity_lines": [ 11.649333, 11.50559, 12.226748, 12.829561 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }