{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0e59fda-9616-4e5d-b709-74d11940f25d", "symbol": "TUR", "name": "Amundi MSCI Turkey UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.419, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.858, "architecture_energy": 27.584, "architecture_maturity": 19.89, "architecture_confidence": 63.575, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.0, "rotation_up": 19.42, "upward_expansion": 11.42, "deceleration": 50.27, "rotation_down": 51.59, "downward_expansion": 48.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.651667, 49.314436, 49.712638, 49.71895 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.395, "trend_reference": 49.5663, "distance_from_trend": -0.023631, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.484911, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.319366, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002638, "excess_performance": -0.055949, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023631, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063256, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087897, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222186, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002638, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.096266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1386, "relative_activity": 0.139103, "balance": 0.096266, "dry_up": 0.831355, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052679, "annualized_volatility": 0.238849, "from_high_reference": -0.101884, "from_low_reference": 0.300941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.5663, "fair_value_reference": 44.484911, "structural_low": 45.75, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.065214, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.010126, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.256014, "worst_return": -0.104083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.08841, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.144304, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.407298, "worst_return": -0.064211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.191464, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.254671, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.342538, "worst_return": 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16.277997, "energy": 13.607058, "activity_lines": [ 49.512733, 50.424, 49.994943, 48.796574 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 47.789001, "volume": 465, "typical_volume": 17860.05, "trend": 46.878067, "fair_value": 43.648802, "relative_strength": 5.987367, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.032464, "energy": 20.229404, "activity_lines": [ 48.6448, 49.950855, 49.824443, 48.872157 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 49.424999, "volume": 1203, "typical_volume": 17544.1, "trend": 47.244434, "fair_value": 43.749738, "relative_strength": 7.447175, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.609722, "energy": 21.064033, "activity_lines": [ 48.583333, 49.758073, 49.807733, 49.036475 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 52.259998, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 13086.9, "trend": 47.6558, "fair_value": 43.876078, "relative_strength": 12.115313, "stage": 2, 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11726.95, "trend": 48.670733, "fair_value": 44.199924, "relative_strength": 6.821417, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.966152, "energy": 24.684104, "activity_lines": [ 50.451, 49.98749, 50.162566, 49.801262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.27, "volume": 23704, "typical_volume": 11669.1, "trend": 48.940833, "fair_value": 44.294507, "relative_strength": 5.375532, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.092678, "energy": 11.292861, "activity_lines": [ 50.036, 49.843454, 50.10269, 49.839925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.049999, "volume": 5958, "typical_volume": 10872.5, "trend": 49.255967, "fair_value": 44.375776, "relative_strength": 6.330253, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.301918, "energy": 7.521676, "activity_lines": [ 49.891333, 49.9074, 50.118747, 49.911484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.325001, "volume": 2086, "typical_volume": 10262.95, "trend": 49.4483, "fair_value": 44.43302, "relative_strength": -1.113931, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.544506, "energy": 18.33779, "activity_lines": [ 48.985667, 49.501654, 49.862505, 49.786905 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.395, "volume": 1386, "typical_volume": 9963.85, "trend": 49.5663, "fair_value": 44.484911, "relative_strength": -1.319366, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.858217, "energy": 27.583533, "activity_lines": [ 48.651667, 49.314436, 49.712638, 49.71895 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }