{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0e743d0-b93a-43bb-9540-1b7ab0cddd6d", "symbol": "AEC", "name": "Africa Energy Corp.", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 3.272, "architecture_energy": 8.809, "architecture_maturity": 50.782, "architecture_confidence": 51.307, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.37, "rotation_up": 39.95, "upward_expansion": 26.41, "deceleration": 48.63, "rotation_down": 23.54, "downward_expansion": 31.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.374333, 1.323455, 1.366686, 1.445338 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.53, "trend_reference": 1.442133, "distance_from_trend": 0.060928, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.999279, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.234724, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.830152, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.810651, "excess_performance": 0.749157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060928, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112614, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.234724, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189724, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.088302, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095692, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.810651, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.080173, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1958413, "relative_activity": 1.06498, "balance": 1.080173, "dry_up": 0.650905, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141277, "annualized_volatility": 1.012269, "from_high_reference": -0.521875, "from_low_reference": 1.037284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.442133, "fair_value_reference": 1.999279, "structural_low": 0.828, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.008824, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.071013, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.097561, "worst_return": -0.212608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011719, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108824, "worst_return": -0.132262, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.002976, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.373529, "worst_return": -0.379481, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.280094, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.283595, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.090588, "worst_return": -0.469599, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.134783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218935, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03914, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054487, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.301508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17506, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040084, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.880878, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.36, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.261146, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.243902, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.49, "volume": 712118, "typical_volume": 694815.8, "trend": 5.401167, "fair_value": 9.782821, "relative_strength": -44.453352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.149157, 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.046164, "energy": 59.596035, "activity_lines": [ 1.191333, 1.276364, 1.402976, 1.444252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.355, "volume": 1168127, "typical_volume": 2802645.0, "trend": 1.406367, "fair_value": 2.038638, "relative_strength": -0.189412, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.942924, "energy": 40.968973, "activity_lines": [ 1.237, 1.279182, 1.380538, 1.441972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.35, "volume": 916844, "typical_volume": 2185331.4, "trend": 1.421467, "fair_value": 2.019439, "relative_strength": -1.952701, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.399883, "energy": 25.003138, "activity_lines": [ 1.282, 1.284455, 1.3626, 1.438335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.53, "volume": 1958413, "typical_volume": 1838919.85, "trend": 1.442133, "fair_value": 1.999279, "relative_strength": 8.830152, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.271651, "energy": 8.808818, "activity_lines": [ 1.374333, 1.323455, 1.366686, 1.445338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }