{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0e84202-0431-4cc6-ac26-beb0d8e4d0ca", "symbol": "APCL", "name": "Anjani Portland Cement Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.472, "architecture_energy": 49.681, "architecture_maturity": 22.227, "architecture_confidence": 78.365, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.68, "rotation_up": 14.66, "upward_expansion": 7.2, "deceleration": 47.28, "rotation_down": 66.06, "downward_expansion": 82.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.994666, 104.077637, 108.675429, 111.484409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 102.139999, "trend_reference": 117.111001, "distance_from_trend": -0.127836, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 156.444807, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.347118, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.805191, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.282876, "excess_performance": -0.239167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.127836, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.347118, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158052, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.282876, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.94762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43265, "relative_activity": 1.769653, "balance": 2.94762, "dry_up": 1.229922, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083317, "annualized_volatility": 0.295497, "from_high_reference": -0.328026, "from_low_reference": 0.038536 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.111001, "fair_value_reference": 156.444807, "structural_low": 98.349998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.000665, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.030212, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.252785, "worst_return": -0.242399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014241, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.02555, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.16592, "worst_return": -0.20189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.060918, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.158703, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.056346, "worst_return": -0.273044, 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.222124, "energy": 68.308759, "activity_lines": [ 106.928, 110.873092, 112.793334, 115.90428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 101.480003, "volume": 40365, "typical_volume": 29837.7, "trend": 119.242667, "fair_value": 158.239615, "relative_strength": -17.171975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.97427, "energy": 73.821827, "activity_lines": [ 104.738668, 108.746728, 111.588573, 114.720194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 102.970001, "volume": 19292, "typical_volume": 29639.35, "trend": 118.713667, "fair_value": 157.65609, "relative_strength": -13.404108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.700729, "energy": 70.646804, "activity_lines": [ 103.502668, 107.119092, 110.647906, 113.670345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.599998, "volume": 17356, "typical_volume": 27395.4, "trend": 117.908334, "fair_value": 157.039102, "relative_strength": -16.958268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.439483, "energy": 65.564077, "activity_lines": [ 102.189333, 105.275637, 109.556048, 112.501721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.139999, "volume": 43265, "typical_volume": 24448.3, "trend": 117.111001, "fair_value": 156.444807, "relative_strength": -15.805191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.471983, "energy": 49.68089, "activity_lines": [ 101.994666, 104.077637, 108.675429, 111.484409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }