{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0f768ec-1662-40c8-a744-5dc967b55f70", "symbol": "6163", "name": "HwaCom Systems Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.268, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.621, "architecture_energy": 67.996, "architecture_maturity": 28.776, "architecture_confidence": 94.681, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.74, "rotation_up": 17.57, "upward_expansion": 14.75, "deceleration": 41.0, "rotation_down": 63.8, "downward_expansion": 88.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.876667, 42.653636, 47.085953, 50.139893 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.549999, "trend_reference": 53.84, "distance_from_trend": -0.209695, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.885513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.473057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.734531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191065, "excess_performance": -0.632437, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209695, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006386, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.473057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.580711, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191065, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.729712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5694552, "relative_activity": 0.31738, "balance": 0.729712, "dry_up": 0.39513, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129169, "annualized_volatility": 0.440696, "from_high_reference": -0.444517, "from_low_reference": 1.01182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.84, "fair_value_reference": 28.885513, "structural_low": 35.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.007381, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.006349, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.115727, "worst_return": -0.149718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052326, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.007827, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.215847, "worst_return": -0.181208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.089332, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030341, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.800712, "worst_return": -0.12508, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -32.468126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.481842, "energy": 84.472245, "activity_lines": [ 41.21, 44.381818, 49.230476, 51.824516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.650002, "volume": 3401875, "typical_volume": 22061172.4, "trend": 54.411667, "fair_value": 28.726177, "relative_strength": -30.462952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.097749, "energy": 79.5088, "activity_lines": [ 40.470001, 43.232728, 48.014762, 50.905161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 42.549999, "volume": 5694552, "typical_volume": 17942360.65, "trend": 53.84, "fair_value": 28.885513, "relative_strength": -29.734531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.620914, "energy": 67.996357, "activity_lines": [ 40.876667, 42.653636, 47.085953, 50.139893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }