{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b0f84beb-5948-492d-a682-03c0668f3caf", "symbol": "688314", "name": "Kontour (Xi'an) Medical Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.772, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.772, "architecture_energy": 55.406, "architecture_maturity": 15.882, "architecture_confidence": 86.777, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.81, "rotation_up": 16.04, "upward_expansion": 9.83, "deceleration": 45.68, "rotation_down": 62.8, "downward_expansion": 83.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.476667, 33.917818, 37.390118, 39.284692 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.490002, "trend_reference": 40.506038, "distance_from_trend": -0.148522, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.369702, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.752126, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071203, "excess_performance": -0.027999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028592, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135671, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071203, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.833144, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6585496, "relative_activity": 0.745355, "balance": 0.833144, "dry_up": 0.838798, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140754, "annualized_volatility": 0.61865, "from_high_reference": -0.407218, "from_low_reference": 0.231786 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.506038, "fair_value_reference": 30.369702, "structural_low": 28.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.018273, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.023555, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.23043, "worst_return": -0.132097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046295, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.063727, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.751854, "worst_return": -0.345144, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.111898, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.099451, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.324576, "worst_return": -0.385574, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -19.717353, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.575607, "energy": 79.406618, "activity_lines": [ 33.059999, 35.460182, 39.154129, 40.314051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.51, "volume": 5191628, "typical_volume": 9257765.9, "trend": 40.450534, "fair_value": 30.36144, "relative_strength": -17.200821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.53663, "energy": 78.016979, "activity_lines": [ 31.933333, 34.236909, 38.053921, 39.669243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.490002, "volume": 6585496, "typical_volume": 8835383.35, "trend": 40.506038, "fair_value": 30.369702, "relative_strength": -8.752126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.772139, "energy": 55.405981, "activity_lines": [ 32.476667, 33.917818, 37.390118, 39.284692 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }