{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b101e292-72c4-47ea-bc7f-4e61807eb18b", "symbol": "BHD", "name": "China Mining International Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.777, "architecture_energy": 55.753, "architecture_maturity": 92.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.115, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.63, "rotation_up": 14.18, "upward_expansion": 9.92, "deceleration": 41.75, "rotation_down": 58.5, "downward_expansion": 78.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.016333, 0.017036, 0.017786, 0.018501 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.015, "trend_reference": 0.020233, "distance_from_trend": -0.258649, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.028295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.469869, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.787966, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.554835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.258649, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.469869, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181733, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.51788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.340998, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 539500, "relative_activity": 1.536731, "balance": 0.340998, "dry_up": 0.391375, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158974, "annualized_volatility": 0.882579, "from_high_reference": -0.634146, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.020233, "fair_value_reference": 0.028295, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.34375, "median_excess_return": -9.5e-05, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 13.6, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.145833, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.108246, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 1.333333, "worst_return": -0.268293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.270554, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.309524, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.298621, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.2, "worst_return": -0.419355, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.319444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.227273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.464286, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.025, "volume": 11200, "typical_volume": 9730.0, "trend": 0.034033, "fair_value": 0.044756, "relative_strength": -39.120561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.633499, "energy": 19.634546, "activity_lines": [ 0.018467, 0.018309, 0.018486, 0.019503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.019, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 415775.0, "trend": 0.021233, "fair_value": 0.028487, "relative_strength": -40.212677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.395608, "energy": 15.841524, "activity_lines": [ 0.0188, 0.0184, 0.018519, 0.01934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 10100, "typical_volume": 370510.0, "trend": 0.020767, "fair_value": 0.028385, "relative_strength": -55.364108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.956861, "energy": 37.994984, "activity_lines": [ 0.017267, 0.017582, 0.01809, 0.018873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.015, "volume": 539500, "typical_volume": 351070.0, "trend": 0.020233, "fair_value": 0.028295, "relative_strength": -51.787966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.776556, "energy": 55.752868, "activity_lines": [ 0.016333, 0.017036, 0.017786, 0.018501 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }