{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b1078d40-6993-4b70-ba41-05eee8fe63f0",
    "symbol": "MGAM",
    "name": "Morgan Advanced Materials plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 53.562,
    "architecture_energy": 61.107,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.359,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.291,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.3,
        "rotation_up": 66.75,
        "upward_expansion": 56.76,
        "deceleration": 27.19,
        "rotation_down": 22.63,
        "downward_expansion": 24.43
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        233.433333,
        226.872727,
        224.125288,
        222.023233
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 254.0,
    "trend_reference": 222.419029,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.141989,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 246.501071,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030421,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 7.516813,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.07433,
    "excess_performance": 0.023095,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.141989,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022332,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030421,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.12468,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.075168,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.087714,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.07433,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 5.61333,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 15977161,
      "relative_activity": 3.37825,
      "balance": 5.61333,
      "dry_up": 2.077127,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.04919,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.356233,
      "from_high_reference": -0.011673,
      "from_low_reference": 0.413121
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 222.419029,
      "fair_value_reference": 246.501071,
      "structural_low": 179.744045,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.008039,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023494,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.015949,
        "worst_return": -0.063319,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.023318,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.070616,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.012217,
        "worst_return": -0.091466,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.007378,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.087487,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": -0.083601,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.179884,
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        "worst_return": -0.179684,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
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      {
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
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        "return": -0.028141,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 7227894,
        "typical_volume": 4012412.8,
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        "relative_strength": -5.219799,
        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 225.0,
        "volume": 10108807,
        "typical_volume": 4100997.4,
        "trend": 221.514329,
        "fair_value": 246.716929,
        "relative_strength": -3.502548,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -13.00843,
        "energy": 11.179297,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 226.0,
        "volume": 5980554,
        "typical_volume": 4215325.55,
        "trend": 221.649966,
        "fair_value": 246.501657,
        "relative_strength": -3.918908,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 19.779142,
        "energy": 11.431535,
        "activity_lines": [
          221.866667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 254.0,
        "volume": 15977161,
        "typical_volume": 4729419.3,
        "trend": 222.419029,
        "fair_value": 246.501071,
        "relative_strength": 7.516813,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 53.561635,
        "energy": 61.106887,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}