{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1093c6a-2da6-4d47-8f3d-814e8d4d7378", "symbol": "BNKE", "name": "Amundi Euro Stoxx Banks UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.871, "architecture_energy": 88.421, "architecture_maturity": 35.279, "architecture_confidence": 86.374, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 76.73, "upward_expansion": 94.99, "deceleration": 43.83, "rotation_down": 16.12, "downward_expansion": 19.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 389.603333, 381.575452, 363.73976, 350.823332 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 403.100006, "trend_reference": 338.458332, "distance_from_trend": 0.190989, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 219.232499, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.838687, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.015718, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.206164, "excess_performance": 0.035272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.190989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069886, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.838687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184215, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.090157, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089087, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.206164, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.43117, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55697, "relative_activity": 1.534868, "balance": 2.43117, "dry_up": 1.052323, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033996, "annualized_volatility": 0.268545, "from_high_reference": -0.011768, "from_low_reference": 0.508326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 338.458332, "fair_value_reference": 219.232499, "structural_low": 278.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.028149, "positive_rate": 0.627907, "directional_follow_through": 0.627907, "median_excess_return": 0.015242, "regime_survival": 0.744186, "best_return": 0.134875, "worst_return": -0.259811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.086646, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.037457, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.251066, "worst_return": -0.184689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.160809, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.051287, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.373644, "worst_return": -0.222732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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339.729998, 333.682794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 377.350006, "volume": 26288, "typical_volume": 44278.25, "trend": 330.046665, "fair_value": 212.413205, "relative_strength": 5.396252, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.926811, "energy": 90.213474, "activity_lines": [ 373.193329, 361.329087, 344.332379, 336.884515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 372.75, "volume": 34344, "typical_volume": 44156.0, "trend": 331.794999, "fair_value": 214.032243, "relative_strength": 5.262849, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.487644, "energy": 85.974368, "activity_lines": [ 374.443331, 365.184542, 348.287379, 339.639569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 381.5, "volume": 34479, "typical_volume": 40887.3, "trend": 333.828333, "fair_value": 215.693397, "relative_strength": 7.571766, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.424652, "energy": 87.659416, "activity_lines": [ 377.069999, 369.823633, 352.86857, 342.846343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 390.299988, "volume": 28226, "typical_volume": 36857.95, "trend": 335.928333, "fair_value": 217.419422, "relative_strength": 8.941402, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.732701, "energy": 82.974851, "activity_lines": [ 382.016663, 375.039995, 357.921426, 346.489676 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 403.100006, "volume": 55697, "typical_volume": 36287.8, "trend": 338.458332, "fair_value": 219.232499, "relative_strength": 9.015718, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.871121, "energy": 88.42109, "activity_lines": [ 389.603333, 381.575452, 363.73976, 350.823332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }