{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b10ea25b-2f56-4d87-97e9-bb5afd8128fa", "symbol": "ETFGLO", "name": "Amundi Prime Global UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.766, "architecture_energy": 69.376, "architecture_maturity": 76.372, "architecture_confidence": 65.545, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.7, "rotation_up": 55.28, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.42, "rotation_down": 28.79, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.001667, 42.809727, 42.16219, 41.283548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.869999, "trend_reference": 40.255915, "distance_from_trend": 0.089778, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.988462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186045, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.156012, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144704, "excess_performance": -0.026188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089778, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055959, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.562134, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4670, "relative_activity": 0.424252, "balance": 3.562134, "dry_up": 0.836104, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016517, "annualized_volatility": 0.108159, "from_high_reference": -0.001707, "from_low_reference": 0.24247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.255915, "fair_value_reference": 36.988462, "structural_low": 36.525002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.003517, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019691, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.019862, "worst_return": -0.012828, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.062236, "energy": 67.965315, "activity_lines": [ 42.719333, 42.481454, 41.50369, 40.697923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.705002, "volume": 10690, "typical_volume": 11987.45, "trend": 39.944613, "fair_value": 36.848025, "relative_strength": -2.437569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.733564, "energy": 65.235127, "activity_lines": [ 42.735, 42.562818, 41.718143, 40.886177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.325001, "volume": 4104, "typical_volume": 11248.2, "trend": 40.09113, "fair_value": 36.910263, "relative_strength": -3.868228, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.560327, "energy": 60.779826, "activity_lines": [ 42.616001, 42.549818, 41.876619, 41.03975 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.869999, "volume": 4670, "typical_volume": 11007.6, "trend": 40.255915, "fair_value": 36.988462, "relative_strength": -3.156012, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.766421, "energy": 69.376277, "activity_lines": [ 43.001667, 42.809727, 42.16219, 41.283548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }