{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b110b988-9c12-4e84-87a1-da843734af4f", "symbol": "PDL", "name": "Petra Diamonds Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.244, "architecture_energy": 62.917, "architecture_maturity": 75.403, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 28.23, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.58, "rotation_down": 54.12, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.066347, 0.068898, 0.092978, 0.113088 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.065, "trend_reference": 0.135247, "distance_from_trend": -0.519397, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.303476, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.785815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.127111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.581994, "excess_performance": -0.633229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.519397, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.785815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.621271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.582611, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.581994, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.210959, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 621501, "relative_activity": 0.805343, "balance": 0.210959, "dry_up": 1.113543, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.307172, "annualized_volatility": 0.728724, "from_high_reference": -0.729167, "from_low_reference": 0.128472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.135247, "fair_value_reference": 0.303476, "structural_low": 0.0576, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.024448, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.00014, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.458333, "worst_return": -0.324299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.073529, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.052254, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.777778, "worst_return": -0.244444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.168919, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.259018, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.312057, "worst_return": -0.581994, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 674048.05, "trend": 0.146358, "fair_value": 0.316448, "relative_strength": -60.29592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.948458, "energy": 66.29958, "activity_lines": [ 0.07212, 0.078842, 0.111118, 0.128026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.07, "volume": 663984, "typical_volume": 700071.55, "trend": 0.14275, "fair_value": 0.312217, "relative_strength": -59.61634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.711265, "energy": 63.375763, "activity_lines": [ 0.071687, 0.074842, 0.105013, 0.1231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0614, "volume": 1228910, "typical_volume": 746053.0, "trend": 0.13883, "fair_value": 0.307739, "relative_strength": -64.688723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.984554, "energy": 64.558691, "activity_lines": [ 0.068053, 0.070805, 0.098566, 0.117851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.065, "volume": 621501, "typical_volume": 771722.35, "trend": 0.135247, "fair_value": 0.303476, "relative_strength": -62.127111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.243789, "energy": 62.916915, "activity_lines": [ 0.066347, 0.068898, 0.092978, 0.113088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }