{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b111de09-e895-4f5b-92d1-ce703850febb", "symbol": "ALINT", "name": "IntegraGen SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 61.291, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.835, "architecture_energy": 19.254, "architecture_maturity": 9.62, "architecture_confidence": 63.234, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.03, "rotation_up": 25.62, "upward_expansion": 11.01, "deceleration": 51.11, "rotation_down": 48.48, "downward_expansion": 48.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1625, 0.166027, 0.176014, 0.176542 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.166, "trend_reference": 0.173867, "distance_from_trend": -0.045245, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.514761, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.67752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.629665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.129252, "excess_performance": 0.07594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056405, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.67752, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126297, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129252, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711195, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 184841, "relative_activity": 1.897335, "balance": 0.711195, "dry_up": 1.858668, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231696, "annualized_volatility": 0.977348, "from_high_reference": -0.540166, "from_low_reference": 0.443478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.173867, "fair_value_reference": 0.514761, "structural_low": 0.125, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.014778, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.076057, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.014778, "worst_return": -0.014778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.182266, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.263751, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.182266, "worst_return": -0.182266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.359606, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.536565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.359606, "worst_return": -0.359606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.453202, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.570104, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.453202, "worst_return": -0.453202, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.228571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.353659, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085185, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.176656, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003846, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.31391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217054, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.220588, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.4, "volume": 6627, "typical_volume": 13855.3, "trend": 1.311333, "fair_value": 1.478218, "relative_strength": 5.600474, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.2512, "energy": 36.269977, "activity_lines": [ 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.820621, "energy": 30.450587, "activity_lines": [ 0.162867, 0.173845, 0.180893, 0.178299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.136, "volume": 20203, "typical_volume": 69410.3, "trend": 0.171183, "fair_value": 0.530613, "relative_strength": -27.638839, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.760283, "energy": 47.539782, "activity_lines": [ 0.1513, 0.165182, 0.176614, 0.17603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.186, "volume": 495867, "typical_volume": 92298.75, "trend": 0.172883, "fair_value": 0.522863, "relative_strength": -1.298886, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.258824, "energy": 24.608967, "activity_lines": [ 0.160233, 0.167318, 0.177305, 0.176986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.166, "volume": 184841, "typical_volume": 97421.4, "trend": 0.173867, "fair_value": 0.514761, "relative_strength": -12.629665, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.834973, "energy": 19.253559, "activity_lines": [ 0.1625, 0.166027, 0.176014, 0.176542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }