{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b112cee3-7e6b-4168-b55f-2c922e75e440", "symbol": "00730", "name": "Fubon Dow Jones Taiwan High-Quality Dividend 30 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.428, "architecture_energy": 34.854, "architecture_maturity": 67.435, "architecture_confidence": 72.729, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.78, "rotation_up": 35.5, "upward_expansion": 59.94, "deceleration": 88.26, "rotation_down": 27.22, "downward_expansion": 21.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.369287, 28.459476, 27.895955, 26.844257 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.07, "trend_reference": 25.511736, "distance_from_trend": 0.139476, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.01889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.383042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.196129, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.289408, "excess_performance": -0.089903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139476, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091909, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.383042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099905, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.289408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.773104, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 665167, "relative_activity": 0.562646, "balance": 0.773104, "dry_up": 0.74728, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048322, "annualized_volatility": 0.245159, "from_high_reference": -0.023012, "from_low_reference": 0.394473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.511736, "fair_value_reference": 21.01889, "structural_low": 21.379638, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000549, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.035428, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.052349, "worst_return": -0.048409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007402, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.055084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055982, "worst_return": -0.018199, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062445, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.117449, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090637, "worst_return": 0.047953, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-18.296149, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.202054, "energy": 61.363849, "activity_lines": [ 28.789192, 28.560975, 27.136357, 26.039004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 1254591, "typical_volume": 1291774.6, "trend": 24.940446, "fair_value": 20.774984, "relative_strength": -16.68619, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.977748, "energy": 45.568682, "activity_lines": [ 28.251666, 28.393212, 27.267693, 26.194617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.18, "volume": 691468, "typical_volume": 1222061.8, "trend": 25.115125, "fair_value": 20.855265, "relative_strength": -15.005215, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.91771, "energy": 40.657696, "activity_lines": [ 28.161385, 28.394848, 27.475265, 26.403621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.17, "volume": 922546, "typical_volume": 1192267.05, "trend": 25.29501, "fair_value": 20.93464, "relative_strength": -13.349321, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.177859, "energy": 29.738589, "activity_lines": [ 28.112984, 28.353816, 27.656219, 26.600709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.07, "volume": 665167, "typical_volume": 1182211.6, "trend": 25.511736, "fair_value": 21.01889, "relative_strength": -12.196129, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.427516, "energy": 34.853911, "activity_lines": [ 28.369287, 28.459476, 27.895955, 26.844257 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }