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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.621, "architecture_energy": 41.789, "architecture_maturity": 75.783, "architecture_confidence": 70.432, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.09, "rotation_up": 50.22, "upward_expansion": 81.38, "deceleration": 65.56, "rotation_down": 26.35, "downward_expansion": 5.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 4167.466667, 4154.6, 4090.942857, 4021.928973 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4205.0, "trend_reference": 3934.694629, "distance_from_trend": 0.068698, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2963.286026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.419033, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.403162, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.121195, "excess_performance": -0.088063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068698, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061718, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.419033, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01093, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054111, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121195, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.711245, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 174551, "relative_activity": 1.328771, "balance": 3.711245, "dry_up": 1.294848, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033056, "annualized_volatility": 0.166555, "from_high_reference": -0.014992, "from_low_reference": 0.38032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3934.694629, "fair_value_reference": 2963.286026, 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4113.963636, 4029.661905, 3965.671919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4138.0, "volume": 204185, "typical_volume": 123306.7, "trend": 3889.382552, "fair_value": 2937.716204, "relative_strength": -4.935004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.958157, "energy": 46.909191, "activity_lines": [ 4133.266667, 4122.763636, 4047.933333, 3983.118994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4199.0, "volume": 198899, "typical_volume": 124321.45, "trend": 3913.062769, "fair_value": 2950.579499, "relative_strength": -2.942288, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.059817, "energy": 44.253574, "activity_lines": [ 4153.333333, 4139.818182, 4070.333333, 4003.094313 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4205.0, "volume": 174551, "typical_volume": 131362.75, "trend": 3934.694629, "fair_value": 2963.286026, "relative_strength": -4.403162, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.620795, "energy": 41.788561, "activity_lines": [ 4167.466667, 4154.6, 4090.942857, 4021.928973 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }