{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b11c94df-0986-4b73-b2b6-3460f8897e0a", "symbol": "SHC", "name": "Shaftesbury Capital PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 58.17, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.758, "architecture_energy": 49.49, "architecture_maturity": 11.573, "architecture_confidence": 56.05, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.12, "rotation_up": 67.77, "upward_expansion": 61.28, "deceleration": 20.88, "rotation_down": 19.42, "downward_expansion": 17.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 143.353333, 141.565455, 138.44901, 138.048158 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 145.0, "trend_reference": 138.80005, "distance_from_trend": 0.044668, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 136.00967, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066101, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.354513, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010606, "excess_performance": -0.055673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044668, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004468, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066101, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077238, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082052, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010606, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.098325, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21533559, "relative_activity": 1.407887, "balance": 3.098325, "dry_up": 1.619653, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041692, "annualized_volatility": 0.304835, "from_high_reference": -0.109637, "from_low_reference": 0.168589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 138.80005, "fair_value_reference": 136.00967, "structural_low": 124.081239, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011625, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.009098, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.084, "worst_return": -0.072993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021394, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109386, "worst_return": -0.072061, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014107, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.030268, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.147341, "worst_return": -0.122141, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007057, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016443, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043836, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043754, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017781, 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137.064878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 142.6, "volume": 19793580, "typical_volume": 15446372.55, "trend": 138.74527, "fair_value": 135.71423, "relative_strength": -6.491939, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.710654, "energy": 43.155617, "activity_lines": [ 141.346667, 139.230909, 136.743665, 137.317917 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 143.8, "volume": 47970581, "typical_volume": 16548387.7, "trend": 138.735996, "fair_value": 135.868032, "relative_strength": -6.349225, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.494815, "energy": 43.352795, "activity_lines": [ 142.253333, 140.394546, 137.565195, 137.644029 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 145.0, "volume": 21533559, "typical_volume": 15294952.6, "trend": 138.80005, "fair_value": 136.00967, "relative_strength": -5.354513, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.757542, "energy": 49.490464, "activity_lines": [ 143.353333, 141.565455, 138.44901, 138.048158 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }