{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b11cb978-0630-4141-b2ce-60a2c70853e5", "symbol": "5210", "name": "Apex International Financial Engineering Res. & Tech. Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 50.928, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.481, "architecture_energy": 20.351, "architecture_maturity": 55.878, "architecture_confidence": 77.74, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.97, "rotation_up": 26.65, "upward_expansion": 57.64, "deceleration": 87.32, "rotation_down": 28.25, "downward_expansion": 18.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.796666, 29.312727, 28.744285, 27.322796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.85, "trend_reference": 25.451667, "distance_from_trend": 0.133521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.438462, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01999, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.046938, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.335648, "excess_performance": -0.105724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.133521, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104353, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01999, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068347, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132899, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.335648, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.87953, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 784002, "relative_activity": 0.336507, "balance": 5.87953, "dry_up": 0.669874, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094787, "annualized_volatility": 0.370369, "from_high_reference": -0.132331, "from_low_reference": 0.4425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.451667, "fair_value_reference": 29.438462, "structural_low": 20.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.073171, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.100971, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.004545, "worst_return": -0.231461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.182533, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.147508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028902, "worst_return": -0.324458, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.144254, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.092486, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.052023, "worst_return": -0.491124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.285393, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.640524, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.183044, "worst_return": -0.493097, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102119, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022034, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028674, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061753, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051836, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.028521, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021239, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 16.4, "volume": 1396000, "typical_volume": 1188450.0, "trend": 16.931667, "fair_value": 15.289551, "relative_strength": -11.593888, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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{ "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 30.0, "volume": 1960301, "typical_volume": 1607375.6, "trend": 23.565, "fair_value": 28.822756, "relative_strength": -23.684596, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.672963, "energy": 73.369927, "activity_lines": [ 29.63, 28.19, 25.847619, 24.720645 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 30.0, "volume": 6442108, "typical_volume": 1864126.15, "trend": 23.86, "fair_value": 28.905769, "relative_strength": -19.297557, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.861342, "energy": 57.249142, "activity_lines": [ 29.92, 28.784545, 26.400238, 25.135806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.25, "volume": 2992336, "typical_volume": 1987486.4, "trend": 24.16, "fair_value": 28.990064, "relative_strength": -21.269524, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.195008, "energy": 53.472807, "activity_lines": [ 30.076667, 29.280909, 26.932857, 25.548064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.549999, "volume": 1483271, "typical_volume": 2044198.95, "trend": 24.408333, "fair_value": 29.077564, "relative_strength": -16.808494, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.465307, "energy": 51.748363, "activity_lines": [ 30.25, 29.697273, 27.452857, 25.960322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.549999, "volume": 2995360, "typical_volume": 2159107.05, "trend": 24.641667, "fair_value": 29.166026, "relative_strength": -10.492051, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.939072, "energy": 47.713998, "activity_lines": [ 30.379999, 29.971818, 27.929524, 26.356559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.799999, "volume": 2494324, "typical_volume": 2252419.4, "trend": 24.84, "fair_value": 29.237179, "relative_strength": -16.457614, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.228572, "energy": 39.516269, "activity_lines": [ 29.889999, 29.882727, 28.197619, 26.624839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.85, "volume": 1782008, "typical_volume": 2310959.45, "trend": 25.051667, "fair_value": 29.30609, "relative_strength": -14.235541, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.568464, "energy": 29.744803, "activity_lines": [ 29.496666, 29.75, 28.434285, 26.883548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.25, "volume": 1182410, "typical_volume": 2326622.65, "trend": 25.24, "fair_value": 29.366987, "relative_strength": -17.048083, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.753943, "energy": 23.23268, "activity_lines": [ 28.98, 29.47, 28.575952, 27.089892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.85, "volume": 784002, "typical_volume": 2329820.7, "trend": 25.451667, "fair_value": 29.438462, "relative_strength": -17.046938, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.480897, "energy": 20.350629, "activity_lines": [ 28.796666, 29.312727, 28.744285, 27.322796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }