{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b11fdd3c-8e6c-4f40-87d1-ba93aeff3db3", "symbol": "RBX", "name": "Resource Base Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.132, "architecture_energy": 68.108, "architecture_maturity": 62.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.169, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.36, "rotation_up": 9.37, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 77.1, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025133, 0.0272, 0.032324, 0.034819 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.027, "trend_reference": 0.0376, "distance_from_trend": -0.281915, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.049513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.454687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.429145, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.357143, "excess_performance": -0.420849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.281915, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090323, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.454687, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.364291, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.401924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.357143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.02214, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 367278, "relative_activity": 6.236774, "balance": 4.02214, "dry_up": 3.671787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096866, "annualized_volatility": 0.775807, "from_high_reference": -0.55, "from_low_reference": 0.421053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0376, "fair_value_reference": 0.049513, "structural_low": 0.019, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.039129, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.807229, "worst_return": -0.353846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.083616, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.060084, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.746988, "worst_return": -0.536585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.013096, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.987952, "worst_return": -0.707692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.354839, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": 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[ 0.0326, 0.0362, 0.038448, 0.039271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.027, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18850.15, "trend": 0.0393, "fair_value": 0.052949, "relative_strength": -34.376723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.605431, "energy": 99.511412, "activity_lines": [ 0.029933, 0.034145, 0.037252, 0.038443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.027, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18714.75, "trend": 0.039033, "fair_value": 0.052064, "relative_strength": -34.086733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.361735, "energy": 96.276565, "activity_lines": [ 0.028133, 0.032345, 0.036114, 0.037649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.019, "volume": 92918, "typical_volume": 22619.6, "trend": 0.0385, "fair_value": 0.05116, "relative_strength": -53.1476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -99.595525, "energy": 99.856416, "activity_lines": [ 0.024533, 0.029345, 0.034281, 0.036357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 404717, "typical_volume": 42855.45, "trend": 0.038333, "fair_value": 0.050301, "relative_strength": -37.07746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.630783, "energy": 68.952808, "activity_lines": [ 0.024533, 0.028036, 0.033219, 0.035551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.027, "volume": 367278, "typical_volume": 58889.1, "trend": 0.0376, "fair_value": 0.049513, "relative_strength": -36.429145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.132291, "energy": 68.108135, "activity_lines": [ 0.025133, 0.0272, 0.032324, 0.034819 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }