{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b122835b-415c-45e3-b96b-92b29dd3fb36", "symbol": "CPH", "name": "Castle Peak Holdings Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 62.169, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.065, "architecture_energy": 15.986, "architecture_maturity": 10.908, "architecture_confidence": 67.503, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.72, "rotation_up": 23.14, "upward_expansion": 17.2, "deceleration": 42.05, "rotation_down": 28.05, "downward_expansion": 53.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.8, 7.778182, 7.82619, 7.908715 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.9, "trend_reference": 7.965541, "distance_from_trend": -0.008228, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.08893, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130811, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.623867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029588, "excess_performance": -0.162737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130811, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036374, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047307, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029588, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.68561, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141100, "relative_activity": 0.873684, "balance": 0.68561, "dry_up": 0.931269, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040896, "annualized_volatility": 0.224751, "from_high_reference": -0.328355, "from_low_reference": 0.095167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.965541, "fair_value_reference": 9.08893, "structural_low": 7.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.000727, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -7.5e-05, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.364865, "worst_return": -0.152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052356, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.035559, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 5.965174, "worst_return": -0.320611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.109677, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048219, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 7.519901, "worst_return": 0.005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061728, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035928, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006098, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012121, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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7.937207, "fair_value": 9.486076, "relative_strength": -17.289504, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.997841, "energy": 38.713763, "activity_lines": [ 7.816667, 7.905455, 8.029093, 8.002892 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 7.75, "volume": 9400, "typical_volume": 441420.0, "trend": 7.93518, "fair_value": 9.435423, "relative_strength": -17.451285, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.229572, "energy": 25.646518, "activity_lines": [ 7.813333, 7.860909, 7.996712, 7.990814 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 7.65, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 432800.0, "trend": 7.932883, "fair_value": 9.386198, "relative_strength": -16.613508, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.715901, "energy": 28.789815, "activity_lines": [ 7.77, 7.806364, 7.954659, 7.972415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.75, "volume": 29500, "typical_volume": 380870.0, "trend": 7.927793, "fair_value": 9.333993, "relative_strength": -18.806638, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.584758, "energy": 26.088914, "activity_lines": [ 7.753333, 7.779091, 7.922239, 7.960616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.75, "volume": 487100, "typical_volume": 387470.0, "trend": 7.93036, "fair_value": 9.28334, "relative_strength": -18.982666, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.882907, "energy": 24.746788, "activity_lines": [ 7.74, 7.761818, 7.892735, 7.949146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.75, "volume": 211500, "typical_volume": 229460.0, "trend": 7.942117, "fair_value": 9.233722, "relative_strength": -19.589375, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.458339, "energy": 31.932638, "activity_lines": [ 7.736667, 7.755455, 7.866802, 7.937509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.75, "volume": 83900, "typical_volume": 197710.0, "trend": 7.949279, "fair_value": 9.184103, "relative_strength": -19.578106, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.07793, "energy": 28.557231, "activity_lines": [ 7.743333, 7.756364, 7.84619, 7.925115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.75, "volume": 165100, "typical_volume": 163730.0, "trend": 7.95491, "fair_value": 9.13707, "relative_strength": -18.452633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.998936, "energy": 25.191508, "activity_lines": [ 7.75, 7.755455, 7.827619, 7.912258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.9, "volume": 141100, "typical_volume": 161500.0, "trend": 7.965541, "fair_value": 9.08893, "relative_strength": -15.623867, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.064613, "energy": 15.985641, "activity_lines": [ 7.8, 7.778182, 7.82619, 7.908715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }