{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b1233060-819c-41fb-8a20-123c1578e592",
    "symbol": "JREM",
    "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Global Emerging Markets Research Enh Idx Eq Active UCITS ETF USD Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 75.651,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 27.282,
    "architecture_energy": 25.161,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.662,
    "architecture_confidence": 81.174,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.58,
        "rotation_up": 21.34,
        "upward_expansion": 55.01,
        "deceleration": 91.16,
        "rotation_down": 35.46,
        "downward_expansion": 18.68
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        43.450334,
        44.170182,
        44.008334,
        42.87828
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 43.775002,
    "trend_reference": 41.364334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.058279,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 31.34,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.396777,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.1003,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.147444,
    "excess_performance": -0.023447,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.058279,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.08602,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.396777,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08659,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011003,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.136673,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.147444,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.903197,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 51571,
      "relative_activity": 1.537652,
      "balance": 0.903197,
      "dry_up": 1.117072,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.043764,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.226025,
      "from_high_reference": -0.073741,
      "from_low_reference": 0.400128
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 41.364334,
      "fair_value_reference": 31.34,
      "structural_low": 35.974998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.002655,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002135,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.135897,
        "worst_return": -0.105745,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.059818,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009088,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.245107,
        "worst_return": -0.013489,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.104038,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.031972,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.106078,
        "worst_return": -0.002322,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.07966,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.166982,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.13223,
        "worst_return": 0.02709,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005638,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01475,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03356,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007097,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004725,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.018318,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.013809,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.101676,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.06236,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.197473,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.125359,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.027711,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.009222,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "fair_value": 29.641827,
        "relative_strength": 8.500644,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 83.635781,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 43.185001,
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        "relative_strength": 10.115899,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 74.687728,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 47390.8,
        "trend": 37.750667,
        "fair_value": 30.002981,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 88.956659,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 46896.05,
        "trend": 38.088,
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        "relative_strength": 12.798978,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 44387.9,
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        "fair_value": 30.244904,
        "relative_strength": 9.06861,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 67.196443,
        "energy": 74.635084,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 43260.0,
        "trend": 38.749833,
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        "relative_strength": 8.635693,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "volume": 5345,
        "typical_volume": 39712.85,
        "trend": 39.561833,
        "fair_value": 30.635897,
        "relative_strength": 8.895559,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.405208,
        "energy": 65.18091,
        "activity_lines": [
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          42.872953,
          41.484247
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 45.869999,
        "volume": 10870,
        "typical_volume": 38492.9,
        "trend": 39.931667,
        "fair_value": 30.768622,
        "relative_strength": 6.303023,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 65.506128,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 45.275002,
        "volume": 49033,
        "typical_volume": 39785.55,
        "trend": 40.3045,
        "fair_value": 30.894423,
        "relative_strength": 5.071115,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.324175,
        "energy": 61.404688,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.715334,
          45.355,
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          42.235957
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 42.650002,
        "volume": 20410,
        "typical_volume": 38525.3,
        "trend": 40.579667,
        "fair_value": 31.004904,
        "relative_strength": 0.246127,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.251261,
        "energy": 38.196453,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.666001,
          44.933637,
          43.714048,
          42.38728
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 43.375,
        "volume": 26729,
        "typical_volume": 37671.15,
        "trend": 40.880167,
        "fair_value": 31.11218,
        "relative_strength": 1.917735,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.592183,
        "energy": 25.017504,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.035334,
          44.671455,
          43.837048,
          42.567624
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 43.044998,
        "volume": 51151,
        "typical_volume": 33372.65,
        "trend": 41.124667,
        "fair_value": 31.221827,
        "relative_strength": 0.285611,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.784332,
        "energy": 24.838569,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.539667,
          44.345818,
          43.900834,
          42.707291
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 43.775002,
        "volume": 51571,
        "typical_volume": 33538.8,
        "trend": 41.364334,
        "fair_value": 31.34,
        "relative_strength": -1.1003,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.281622,
        "energy": 25.161152,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.450334,
          44.170182,
          44.008334,
          42.87828
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}