{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b1247311-7597-47e1-a71c-790c71e66e91",
    "symbol": "MBBAB",
    "name": "MoveByBike Europe AB (publ)",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 72.027,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -19.453,
    "architecture_energy": 35.17,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.238,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.382,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.74,
        "rotation_up": 20.23,
        "upward_expansion": 22.34,
        "deceleration": 51.36,
        "rotation_down": 54.81,
        "downward_expansion": 52.01
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        10.32,
        11.032727,
        13.374762,
        13.170968
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 10.3,
    "trend_reference": 11.983333,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.140473,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 113.963286,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.90962,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -26.094195,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.775862,
    "excess_performance": 0.714368,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.140473,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.086431,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.90962,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.057449,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.260942,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.731005,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.775862,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.999088,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 31428,
      "relative_activity": 0.091659,
      "balance": 0.999088,
      "dry_up": 0.11526,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.480433,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.917147,
      "from_high_reference": -0.841049,
      "from_low_reference": 1.06
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 11.983333,
      "fair_value_reference": 113.963286,
      "structural_low": 5.6,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.22,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.234976,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": -0.219178,
        "worst_return": -0.304348,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.411257,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.456363,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.26087,
        "worst_return": -0.561644,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.332758,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.36951,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.295652,
        "worst_return": -0.369863,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.894783,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -1.008591,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.894783,
        "worst_return": -0.894783,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-10-20",
        "end": "2024-01-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.358025,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.21393,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.558802,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.8425,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.583942,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.36478,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.488372,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.219178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.344828,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.210526,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.118056,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.461538,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.215385,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 532.354065,
        "volume": 78,
        "typical_volume": 112.9,
        "trend": 782.819239,
        "fair_value": 1293.51015,
        "relative_strength": -33.541667,
        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 247961.25,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 303507.5,
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        "relative_strength": -22.265097,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -15.968332,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 9.219599,
        "energy": 12.596789,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.173333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 130121,
        "typical_volume": 341762.85,
        "trend": 11.37,
        "fair_value": 134.704332,
        "relative_strength": -11.138197,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 10.15033,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 111748,
        "typical_volume": 345850.0,
        "trend": 11.476667,
        "fair_value": 130.802438,
        "relative_strength": -27.588604,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.280605,
        "energy": 7.702859,
        "activity_lines": [
          12.24,
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          13.521935
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 10.4,
        "volume": 52136,
        "typical_volume": 344280.5,
        "trend": 11.596667,
        "fair_value": 126.552666,
        "relative_strength": -26.834548,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.089517,
        "energy": 7.174284,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.693333,
          12.287273,
          14.551429,
          13.452473
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 10.3,
        "volume": 24312,
        "typical_volume": 342420.2,
        "trend": 11.713333,
        "fair_value": 122.911632,
        "relative_strength": -27.353349,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.283767,
        "energy": 23.388378,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.186667,
          11.745455,
          14.172857,
          13.368817
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 10.2,
        "volume": 50204,
        "typical_volume": 342093.95,
        "trend": 11.853333,
        "fair_value": 118.203543,
        "relative_strength": -27.588366,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.017825,
        "energy": 33.698196,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.62,
          11.307273,
          13.774762,
          13.271183
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.3,
        "volume": 31428,
        "typical_volume": 342878.2,
        "trend": 11.983333,
        "fair_value": 113.963286,
        "relative_strength": -26.094195,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -19.452601,
        "energy": 35.170201,
        "activity_lines": [
          10.32,
          11.032727,
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          13.170968
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}