{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b127247b-668e-415c-bf16-fc88e6b77f7d", "symbol": "KSC", "name": "K&S Corporation Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.801, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.835, "architecture_energy": 41.767, "architecture_maturity": 72.796, "architecture_confidence": 79.144, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.67, "rotation_up": 25.53, "upward_expansion": 5.62, "deceleration": 60.45, "rotation_down": 48.74, "downward_expansion": 78.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.02, 3.021273, 3.06, 3.10478 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.07, "trend_reference": 3.173236, "distance_from_trend": -0.032533, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.032867, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012243, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.512564, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.103945, "excess_performance": -0.167651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032533, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025653, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012243, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005046, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009507, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103945, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 17.786829, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12434, "relative_activity": 0.634786, "balance": 17.786829, "dry_up": 3.05993, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02681, "annualized_volatility": 0.190792, "from_high_reference": -0.109065, "from_low_reference": 0.040678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.173236, "fair_value_reference": 3.032867, "structural_low": 2.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002837, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012125, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.030395, "worst_return": -0.041401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.006917, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044696, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.015198, "worst_return": -0.029032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.028595, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028595, "worst_return": 0.028595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2023-06-30", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.183191, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.1777, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.101016, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029693, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.211347, "energy": 81.258524, "activity_lines": [ 2.972, 3.021091, 3.069136, 3.12097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.05, "volume": 215219, "typical_volume": 20332.15, "trend": 3.182154, "fair_value": 3.027328, "relative_strength": -7.431181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.719508, "energy": 51.338352, "activity_lines": [ 2.994, 3.018545, 3.063095, 3.112016 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.07, "volume": 12434, "typical_volume": 19587.7, "trend": 3.173236, "fair_value": 3.032867, "relative_strength": -9.512564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.835095, "energy": 41.767232, "activity_lines": [ 3.02, 3.021273, 3.06, 3.10478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }