{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b12b916a-cf23-4877-a5b5-92f9e54734f5", "symbol": "SBICARD", "name": "SBI Cards and Payment Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 93.115, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.639, "architecture_energy": 16.725, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.631, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.68, "rotation_up": 40.43, "upward_expansion": 33.14, "deceleration": 47.28, "rotation_down": 16.96, "downward_expansion": 43.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 647.526676, 634.031825, 630.906673, 646.155393 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 659.0, "trend_reference": 676.027606, "distance_from_trend": -0.025188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 767.362229, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.141214, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.891084, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.1256, "excess_performance": -0.081891, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108943, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.141214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039386, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073308, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.451772, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4327076, "relative_activity": 0.792787, "balance": 1.451772, "dry_up": 1.526207, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046247, "annualized_volatility": 0.271132, "from_high_reference": -0.314706, "from_low_reference": 0.153711 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 676.027606, "fair_value_reference": 767.362229, "structural_low": 571.200012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.00472, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003645, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.142471, "worst_return": -0.141383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.019145, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.013453, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.204671, "worst_return": -0.143645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007543, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089374, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.38844, "worst_return": -0.173779, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-08-07", "close": 659.0, "volume": 4327076, "typical_volume": 5458057.95, "trend": 676.027606, "fair_value": 767.362229, "relative_strength": -11.891084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.638625, "energy": 16.724911, "activity_lines": [ 647.526676, 634.031825, 630.906673, 646.155393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }