{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "b12f9c6b-cd66-427d-b7ca-74c6f1e01c55",
    "symbol": "H1D5",
    "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 82.44,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.711,
    "architecture_energy": 58.589,
    "architecture_maturity": 61.086,
    "architecture_confidence": 68.134,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.22,
        "rotation_up": 52.19,
        "upward_expansion": 79.76,
        "deceleration": 68.67,
        "rotation_down": 27.65,
        "downward_expansion": 8.76
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        175.972573,
        172.779689
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 182.854996,
    "trend_reference": 169.244834,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.080417,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 141.848045,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289091,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.372982,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.115208,
    "excess_performance": 0.050568,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.080417,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030232,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.289091,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004993,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02373,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.071182,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115208,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.139027,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9141,
      "relative_activity": 1.575586,
      "balance": 1.139027,
      "dry_up": 1.36194,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018535,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.133353,
      "from_high_reference": -0.00422,
      "from_low_reference": 0.209079
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 169.244834,
      "fair_value_reference": 141.848045,
      "structural_low": 151.235001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 39,
        "median_return": 0.013808,
        "positive_rate": 0.717949,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.717949,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007171,
        "regime_survival": 0.820513,
        "best_return": 0.061691,
        "worst_return": -0.089741,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.026783,
        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": 0.013526,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.121311,
        "worst_return": -0.071702,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
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        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
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        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.167966,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.108616,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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      {
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        "label": "Deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 9180.15,
        "trend": 162.034001,
        "fair_value": 135.582596,
        "relative_strength": 6.837081,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "trend": 162.578334,
        "fair_value": 136.056603,
        "relative_strength": 9.491189,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 9484.25,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 9758.5,
        "trend": 163.740667,
        "fair_value": 137.003462,
        "relative_strength": 7.725153,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 9711.55,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 164.898501,
        "fair_value": 137.942083,
        "relative_strength": 7.470195,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 86.156511,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 8812.0,
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        "fair_value": 138.375321,
        "relative_strength": 6.983299,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 139.24843,
        "relative_strength": 5.227743,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.832269,
        "energy": 53.951772,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 7244.95,
        "trend": 166.880001,
        "fair_value": 139.69266,
        "relative_strength": 2.30531,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 7013.1,
        "trend": 167.414168,
        "fair_value": 140.127917,
        "relative_strength": 5.5951,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 57.737693,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 10556,
        "typical_volume": 6662.75,
        "trend": 167.871668,
        "fair_value": 140.546731,
        "relative_strength": 5.182171,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.374804,
        "energy": 54.417427,
        "activity_lines": [
          176.767335,
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          173.842311,
          170.907292
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 175.710007,
        "volume": 2235,
        "typical_volume": 6073.75,
        "trend": 168.256168,
        "fair_value": 140.95609,
        "relative_strength": 3.477756,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.976735,
        "energy": 48.584721,
        "activity_lines": [
          176.47967,
          176.546911,
          174.411621,
          171.412991
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 175.25,
        "volume": 9674,
        "typical_volume": 5878.55,
        "trend": 168.665001,
        "fair_value": 141.372308,
        "relative_strength": 0.939226,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.721156,
        "energy": 40.305642,
        "activity_lines": [
          176.123336,
          176.268911,
          174.871287,
          171.864206
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 182.854996,
        "volume": 9141,
        "typical_volume": 5801.65,
        "trend": 169.244834,
        "fair_value": 141.848045,
        "relative_strength": 2.372982,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.711129,
        "energy": 58.588808,
        "activity_lines": [
          178.225334,
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          172.779689
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}