{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b135bccb-6cc9-4f40-9696-3fb91bd5788d", "symbol": "HOOD", "name": "Robinhood Markets Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.634, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.116, "architecture_energy": 21.726, "architecture_maturity": 53.36, "architecture_confidence": 72.987, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.33, "rotation_up": 25.97, "upward_expansion": 56.83, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 33.94, "downward_expansion": 20.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.954, 98.081273, 93.407905, 89.235032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 93.29, "trend_reference": 86.819667, "distance_from_trend": 0.074526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.579551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.678495, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.529031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126419, "excess_performance": -0.061035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074526, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080537, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.678495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093099, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20529, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153034, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126419, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.927857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84918651, "relative_activity": 0.623392, "balance": 0.927857, "dry_up": 0.739048, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163319, "annualized_volatility": 0.763827, "from_high_reference": -0.393669, "from_low_reference": 0.468787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.819667, "fair_value_reference": 55.579551, "structural_low": 63.515, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.164345, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.120936, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.499757, "worst_return": -0.079696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.65709, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.561148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.769612, "worst_return": -0.213472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.373814, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.212713, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.812894, "worst_return": 0.335376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 2.589966, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 2.326986, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 4.176136, "worst_return": 1.003795, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.297498, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.234807, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142618, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144498, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.714286, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.392245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.891721, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118335, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", 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"volume": 113292016, "typical_volume": 142173587.85, "trend": 89.281333, "fair_value": 54.040897, "relative_strength": -13.238149, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.364221, "energy": 50.26959, "activity_lines": [ 106.093333, 100.946364, 91.813714, 88.627355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 94.91, "volume": 90507016, "typical_volume": 138652419.0, "trend": 88.507333, "fair_value": 54.567692, "relative_strength": -15.824853, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.920284, "energy": 41.232756, "activity_lines": [ 102.296667, 100.889273, 92.739095, 88.990495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.56, "volume": 113975376, "typical_volume": 138020527.45, "trend": 87.552333, "fair_value": 55.050256, "relative_strength": -23.154842, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.642279, "energy": 20.532422, "activity_lines": [ 96.599333, 98.990909, 92.784381, 88.86486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.29, "volume": 84918651, "typical_volume": 136220218.35, "trend": 86.819667, "fair_value": 55.579551, "relative_strength": -20.529031, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.115855, "energy": 21.726453, "activity_lines": [ 93.954, 98.081273, 93.407905, 89.235032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }