{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b13920d9-ca13-4f45-96b3-e38b406d4f9d", "symbol": "EMEIS", "name": "EMEIS", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.366, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.496, "architecture_energy": 10.017, "architecture_maturity": 12.479, "architecture_confidence": 76.147, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.21, "rotation_up": 33.88, "upward_expansion": 50.61, "deceleration": 70.28, "rotation_down": 28.55, "downward_expansion": 28.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.268, 14.285273, 14.356571, 14.281785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.47, "trend_reference": 14.187667, "distance_from_trend": 0.0199, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.48821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.356552, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.864889, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.023338, "excess_performance": -0.029973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0199, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017523, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.356552, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.166188, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023338, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.671765, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 982499, "relative_activity": 1.11791, "balance": 1.671765, "dry_up": 1.093144, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055127, "annualized_volatility": 0.318371, "from_high_reference": -0.106238, "from_low_reference": 0.349813 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.187667, "fair_value_reference": 22.48821, "structural_low": 11.77, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00757, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003057, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.555895, "worst_return": -0.18476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.045385, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.145917, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.399466, "worst_return": -0.573569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.027453, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.090596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.652041, "worst_return": -0.541687, "sufficient": true 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"activity_lines": [ 14.364667, 14.429636, 14.346762, 14.274086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.06, "volume": 536069, "typical_volume": 901841.25, "trend": 14.192667, "fair_value": 24.389668, "relative_strength": -1.316213, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.294425, "energy": 8.449623, "activity_lines": [ 14.262667, 14.337273, 14.329619, 14.267011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.77, "volume": 527330, "typical_volume": 840202.6, "trend": 14.195, "fair_value": 23.73736, "relative_strength": -3.916879, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.142659, "energy": 15.977069, "activity_lines": [ 14.071333, 14.211636, 14.291143, 14.239742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.57, "volume": 1797034, "typical_volume": 880293.1, "trend": 14.193333, "fair_value": 23.118018, "relative_strength": 0.146455, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.116608, "energy": 8.093922, "activity_lines": [ 14.188667, 14.256364, 14.330143, 14.263935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.47, "volume": 982499, "typical_volume": 878871.3, "trend": 14.187667, "fair_value": 22.48821, "relative_strength": -2.864889, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.4964, "energy": 10.016712, "activity_lines": [ 14.268, 14.285273, 14.356571, 14.281785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }