{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b14073ad-ddf9-40d4-980d-87c408e77b27", "symbol": "MOO", "name": "VanEck Agribusiness ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.432, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.675, "architecture_energy": 28.682, "architecture_maturity": 11.304, "architecture_confidence": 70.834, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.29, "rotation_up": 61.93, "upward_expansion": 49.0, "deceleration": 41.43, "rotation_down": 21.58, "downward_expansion": 14.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 1437.8, 1422.513639, 1418.943099, 1424.811379 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1405.0, "trend_reference": 1420.804329, "distance_from_trend": -0.011124, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1329.07316, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.057128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.322873, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.030506, "excess_performance": 0.024161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011124, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02652, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.057128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052804, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003229, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023224, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030506, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.335404, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28, "relative_activity": 0.691358, "balance": 0.335404, "dry_up": 0.635802, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019945, "annualized_volatility": 0.151554, "from_high_reference": -0.060201, "from_low_reference": 0.083535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1420.804329, "fair_value_reference": 1329.07316, "structural_low": 1370.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.006155, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.025226, "worst_return": -0.052509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.018893, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.032366, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119487, "worst_return": -0.111125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043062, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.029794, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.119513, "worst_return": -0.147394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 0.988651, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.824538, "energy": 14.771178, "activity_lines": [ 1410.196671, 1398.205642, 1414.797671, 1418.410495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1460.0, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 39.05, "trend": 1411.817659, "fair_value": 1329.010416, "relative_strength": 4.026015, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.140346, "energy": 33.835238, "activity_lines": [ 1429.953337, 1410.074185, 1417.722338, 1421.857313 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1470.0, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 39.1, "trend": 1417.394328, "fair_value": 1329.250121, "relative_strength": 4.05795, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.323336, "energy": 56.518643, "activity_lines": [ 1447.043335, 1422.689094, 1421.504147, 1425.611013 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1405.0, "volume": 28, "typical_volume": 40.5, "trend": 1420.804329, "fair_value": 1329.07316, "relative_strength": -0.322873, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.675085, "energy": 28.682407, "activity_lines": [ 1437.8, 1422.513639, 1418.943099, 1424.811379 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }