{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1488237-3cb7-4f84-aa71-0f06b11535ef", "symbol": "OZR", "name": "SPDR ETFs Australia - State Street SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Resources ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.587, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.23, "architecture_energy": 12.545, "architecture_maturity": 17.439, "architecture_confidence": 76.244, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.39, "rotation_up": 26.48, "upward_expansion": 26.51, "deceleration": 71.11, "rotation_down": 41.38, "downward_expansion": 28.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.034667, 17.01492, 17.24598, 17.194796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.77, "trend_reference": 17.056947, "distance_from_trend": 0.041804, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.215905, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.344592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.209107, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114806, "excess_performance": 0.0511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041804, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051192, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.344592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.072091, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114806, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.551126, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 312192, "relative_activity": 0.63247, "balance": 1.551126, "dry_up": 1.23079, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042348, "annualized_volatility": 0.234812, "from_high_reference": -0.03995, "from_low_reference": 0.426733 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.056947, "fair_value_reference": 13.215905, "structural_low": 15.11, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022087, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.002553, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.027051, "worst_return": -0.015127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028941, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034609, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138743, "worst_return": -0.023885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.152665, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.184726, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264811, "worst_return": -0.073172, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060642, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039388, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055944, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068551, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.996035, "volume": 124323, "typical_volume": 302616.65, "trend": 12.298496, "fair_value": 10.32417, "relative_strength": 0.858264, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"activity_lines": [ 17.011543, 17.342824, 17.368093, 17.198498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 822327, "typical_volume": 470243.2, "trend": 16.87563, "fair_value": 13.126736, "relative_strength": 4.622321, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.323999, "energy": 39.221855, "activity_lines": [ 16.670918, 17.102438, 17.265148, 17.158141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.629999, "volume": 801450, "typical_volume": 502139.15, "trend": 16.92228, "fair_value": 13.152871, "relative_strength": 7.137189, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.788055, "energy": 41.359781, "activity_lines": [ 16.586126, 16.964992, 17.211584, 17.142294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 494142, "typical_volume": 503948.5, "trend": 16.983947, "fair_value": 13.181701, "relative_strength": 6.114204, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.559886, "energy": 36.834975, "activity_lines": [ 16.679334, 16.908593, 17.190782, 17.144083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.77, "volume": 312192, "typical_volume": 493607.8, "trend": 17.056947, "fair_value": 13.215905, "relative_strength": 7.209107, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.230041, "energy": 12.545191, "activity_lines": [ 17.034667, 17.01492, 17.24598, 17.194796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }