{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b14c14ee-dc7f-442b-b5b2-fbde5f178131", "symbol": "2838", "name": "Union Bank of Taiwan", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.797, "architecture_energy": 21.222, "architecture_maturity": 57.163, "architecture_confidence": 74.763, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.39, "rotation_up": 24.03, "upward_expansion": 55.91, "deceleration": 91.05, "rotation_down": 28.08, "downward_expansion": 19.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.35, 20.622569, 20.227165, 19.840202 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.9, "trend_reference": 19.234086, "distance_from_trend": 0.034622, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.512652, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.371217, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.204209, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.143337, "excess_performance": -0.298035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034622, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052322, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.371217, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029572, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222042, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039818, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143337, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.266868, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13415427, "relative_activity": 1.268568, "balance": 1.266868, "dry_up": 1.257881, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046866, "annualized_volatility": 0.208111, "from_high_reference": -0.103871, "from_low_reference": 0.298307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.234086, "fair_value_reference": 14.512652, "structural_low": 17.405197, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.027211, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": 0.00611, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.211073, "worst_return": -0.079643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.063011, "positive_rate": 0.9, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.037702, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.224247, "worst_return": -0.137952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.122366, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.103316, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236956, "worst_return": -0.09006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029508, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015198, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033033, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.197117, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", 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20.55215, 19.841529, 19.379781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.5, "volume": 22033845, "typical_volume": 10186764.0, "trend": 18.902619, "fair_value": 14.301654, "relative_strength": -16.217928, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.791695, "energy": 72.031476, "activity_lines": [ 21.08682, 20.645611, 19.946325, 19.4886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.299999, "volume": 13097545, "typical_volume": 10161297.95, "trend": 18.977568, "fair_value": 14.353525, "relative_strength": -18.366949, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.366351, "energy": 52.507441, "activity_lines": [ 20.829746, 20.674978, 20.023492, 19.578754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.75, "volume": 15470822, "typical_volume": 10336634.9, "trend": 19.067516, "fair_value": 14.409698, "relative_strength": -14.986137, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.0072, "energy": 43.879981, "activity_lines": [ 20.769757, 20.754517, 20.133689, 19.693104 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.6, "volume": 11225857, "typical_volume": 10534980.45, "trend": 19.152465, "fair_value": 14.462794, "relative_strength": -17.227734, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.149551, "energy": 27.878363, "activity_lines": [ 20.658386, 20.767793, 20.218509, 19.791974 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.9, "volume": 13415427, "typical_volume": 10575255.4, "trend": 19.234086, "fair_value": 14.512652, "relative_strength": -22.204209, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.796968, "energy": 21.221925, "activity_lines": [ 20.35, 20.622569, 20.227165, 19.840202 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }