{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b1506435-87bb-405c-9ef9-883be518ccd6", "symbol": "PARSVNATH", "name": "Parsvnath Developers Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.128, "architecture_energy": 93.659, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.92, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 29.33, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 66.32, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.861333, 2.194727, 3.371333, 4.360839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.65, "trend_reference": 5.668667, "distance_from_trend": -0.708926, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.042821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.882502, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -81.724697, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.807916, "excess_performance": -0.764207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.708926, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.374112, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.882502, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.353101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.817247, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342782, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.807916, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 649648, "relative_activity": 0.218615, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.240235, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.248019, "annualized_volatility": 0.746785, "from_high_reference": -0.912, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.668667, "fair_value_reference": 14.042821, "structural_low": 1.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.096284, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.126469, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.460504, "worst_return": -0.456713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.161608, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.21789, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.541599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.408458, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.424236, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.928572, "worst_return": -0.745701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002869, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.432738, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042626, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011581, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074164, 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3415315.55, "trend": 6.209, "fair_value": 14.116218, "relative_strength": -78.945721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.189186, "energy": 93.171944, "activity_lines": [ 2.217333, 2.617091, 3.976381, 4.920538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8, "volume": 824196, "typical_volume": 3257587.25, "trend": 5.916333, "fair_value": 14.080321, "relative_strength": -80.492988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.05864, "energy": 92.708794, "activity_lines": [ 2.030667, 2.396545, 3.66919, 4.636086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.65, "volume": 649648, "typical_volume": 2971648.35, "trend": 5.668667, "fair_value": 14.042821, "relative_strength": -81.724697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.127694, "energy": 93.659345, "activity_lines": [ 1.861333, 2.194727, 3.371333, 4.360839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }