{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b150701d-a2e5-4d53-8ad4-7ef77c176dcb", "symbol": "JMIA", "name": "Jumia Technologies AG", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.308, "architecture_energy": 61.088, "architecture_maturity": 57.173, "architecture_confidence": 94.382, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.71, "rotation_up": 14.67, "upward_expansion": 12.77, "deceleration": 39.17, "rotation_down": 60.94, "downward_expansion": 83.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.156, 6.407273, 6.693476, 7.009161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.19, "trend_reference": 7.882, "distance_from_trend": -0.214666, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.024359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.499659, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.480269, "excess_performance": -0.605894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214666, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.404997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226852, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.480269, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.505932, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8732825, "relative_activity": 0.882512, "balance": 0.505932, "dry_up": 0.807054, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133875, "annualized_volatility": 0.625276, "from_high_reference": -0.579484, "from_low_reference": 0.087873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.882, "fair_value_reference": 6.024359, "structural_low": 5.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.038268, "positive_rate": 0.447368, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.060081, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.609756, "worst_return": -0.436145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.163866, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.199071, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.987705, "worst_return": -0.447368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.380952, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.221015, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 3.459016, "worst_return": -0.603009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 6.899333, 6.920182, 7.032048, 7.616366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.5, "volume": 6066090, "typical_volume": 9769959.55, "trend": 8.583333, "fair_value": 5.987308, "relative_strength": -35.019592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.875772, "energy": 34.580211, "activity_lines": [ 6.763333, 6.827818, 6.971286, 7.468172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.86, "volume": 11837762, "typical_volume": 9957316.25, "trend": 8.380333, "fair_value": 5.9975, "relative_strength": -41.091669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.806857, "energy": 41.055031, "activity_lines": [ 6.452667, 6.642182, 6.85781, 7.292473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.95, "volume": 5307860, "typical_volume": 9834647.2, "trend": 8.151, "fair_value": 6.008974, "relative_strength": -40.896963, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.917512, "energy": 47.78588, "activity_lines": [ 6.250667, 6.493636, 6.76119, 7.135677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.19, "volume": 8732825, "typical_volume": 9895412.4, "trend": 7.882, "fair_value": 6.024359, "relative_strength": -40.499659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.308242, "energy": 61.087827, "activity_lines": [ 6.156, 6.407273, 6.693476, 7.009161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }