{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b151a28c-9735-4d34-a4c0-a832497ad0f6", "symbol": "XLVS", "name": "Invesco Health Care S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.364, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.265, "architecture_energy": 60.508, "architecture_maturity": 26.659, "architecture_confidence": 70.852, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.4, "rotation_up": 68.66, "upward_expansion": 85.82, "deceleration": 62.9, "rotation_down": 16.81, "downward_expansion": 10.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 705.097335, 698.387999, 673.723239, 662.585079 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 707.559998, "trend_reference": 653.784672, "distance_from_trend": 0.082252, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 630.400452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122398, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.113947, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080475, "excess_performance": -0.090416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082252, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020328, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122398, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082826, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080475, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.955655, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3462, "relative_activity": 1.889016, "balance": 1.955655, "dry_up": 0.913816, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032285, "annualized_volatility": 0.166783, "from_high_reference": -0.035115, "from_low_reference": 0.292323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 653.784672, "fair_value_reference": 630.400452, "structural_low": 600.73999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.000465, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.514286, "median_excess_return": -0.023613, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.08693, "worst_return": -0.050348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.008655, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.027979, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.042488, "worst_return": -0.170718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020635, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.081131, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.113818, "worst_return": -0.167483, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.819162, "energy": 88.996045, "activity_lines": [ 705.140657, 689.126176, 663.386095, 655.879014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 699.650024, "volume": 1340, "typical_volume": 1748.95, "trend": 652.445673, "fair_value": 629.636286, "relative_strength": -3.382963, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.514783, "energy": 65.433184, "activity_lines": [ 703.913334, 693.604181, 668.301144, 659.029316 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 707.559998, "volume": 3462, "typical_volume": 1832.7, "trend": 653.784672, "fair_value": 630.400452, "relative_strength": -5.113947, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.26492, "energy": 60.507962, "activity_lines": [ 705.097335, 698.387999, 673.723239, 662.585079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }