{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b159a33f-3ede-4329-9150-5ff1083ee491", "symbol": "3080", "name": "Eastern Province Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 88.855, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.184, "architecture_energy": 22.54, "architecture_maturity": 59.116, "architecture_confidence": 88.505, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.3, "rotation_up": 22.77, "upward_expansion": 55.93, "deceleration": 91.01, "rotation_down": 33.18, "downward_expansion": 21.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.339844, 25.729829, 25.369235, 24.89071 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.0, "trend_reference": 24.355648, "distance_from_trend": 0.026456, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.3411, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.147953, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.523404, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.059999, "excess_performance": 0.091829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026456, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03437, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.147953, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029314, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035234, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045939, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059999, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.257591, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 798898, "relative_activity": 1.118046, "balance": 1.257591, "dry_up": 0.665324, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039852, "annualized_volatility": 0.193718, "from_high_reference": -0.092888, "from_low_reference": 0.167689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.355648, "fair_value_reference": 29.3411, "structural_low": 21.409803, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.005733, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.080806, "worst_return": -0.067033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027216, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.049305, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.026871, "worst_return": -0.128658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.054128, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.079588, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.024948, "worst_return": -0.170706, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.321061, "energy": 57.034717, "activity_lines": [ 26.272333, 25.971528, 25.195678, 24.689381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.957031, "volume": 299135, "typical_volume": 703954.1, "trend": 24.236931, "fair_value": 29.53165, "relative_strength": 7.650971, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.773713, "energy": 43.725482, "activity_lines": [ 26.118156, 26.026119, 25.33366, 24.805751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.84375, "volume": 498117, "typical_volume": 699922.5, "trend": 24.289946, "fair_value": 29.434054, "relative_strength": 5.153023, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.723364, "energy": 22.093579, "activity_lines": [ 25.61975, 25.86744, 25.348932, 24.8449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.0, "volume": 798898, "typical_volume": 714548.7, "trend": 24.355648, "fair_value": 29.3411, "relative_strength": 3.523404, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.184098, "energy": 22.539754, "activity_lines": [ 25.339844, 25.729829, 25.369235, 24.89071 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }