{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b166a1bb-d854-46b8-970f-3f9d6f6ec054", "symbol": "603559", "name": "Zhongtong Guomai Communication Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.808, "architecture_energy": 14.948, "architecture_maturity": 53.732, "architecture_confidence": 93.255, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.6, "rotation_up": 31.27, "upward_expansion": 51.14, "deceleration": 78.43, "rotation_down": 31.51, "downward_expansion": 26.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.38, 8.472727, 8.508667, 8.226968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.88, "trend_reference": 7.782333, "distance_from_trend": 0.141046, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.622436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.164982, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.597168, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.355725, "excess_performance": 0.398929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141046, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018941, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.164982, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05327, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115972, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17847, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.355725, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.264574, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94966686, "relative_activity": 2.941624, "balance": 1.264574, "dry_up": 2.173739, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15194, "annualized_volatility": 0.635713, "from_high_reference": -0.154286, "from_low_reference": 0.520548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.782333, "fair_value_reference": 7.622436, "structural_low": 6.29, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.14329, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.091015, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.020228, "worst_return": -0.340284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.361919, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.38312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.310259, "worst_return": -0.41358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.392237, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.400052, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.258549, "worst_return": -0.525926, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.025945, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 18.973145, "energy": 10.955442, "activity_lines": [ 8.464, 8.634, 8.43381, 8.093118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.82, "volume": 39623500, "typical_volume": 25468059.55, "trend": 7.692, "fair_value": 7.600385, "relative_strength": 1.092262, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.884138, "energy": 9.477672, "activity_lines": [ 8.218667, 8.442364, 8.406524, 8.100602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.49, "volume": 75592100, "typical_volume": 28205954.55, "trend": 7.719333, "fair_value": 7.610577, "relative_strength": 9.542258, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.498056, "energy": 12.987257, "activity_lines": [ 8.256667, 8.413455, 8.441571, 8.152086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.88, "volume": 94966686, "typical_volume": 32283757.6, "trend": 7.782333, "fair_value": 7.622436, "relative_strength": 11.597168, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.808378, "energy": 14.948382, "activity_lines": [ 8.38, 8.472727, 8.508667, 8.226968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }