{ "ticker": { "uuid": "b16a49a8-8d03-4148-9dbe-155bc96ef0d2", "symbol": "GRAL", "name": "Grifal S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.437, "architecture_energy": 39.806, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.162, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.48, "rotation_up": 28.15, "upward_expansion": 5.83, "deceleration": 56.31, "rotation_down": 41.71, "downward_expansion": 76.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.610333, 0.612455, 0.634452, 0.678581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.625, "trend_reference": 0.767, "distance_from_trend": -0.185137, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.650288, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.621278, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.308516, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.375, "excess_performance": -0.545892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185137, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.621278, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000613, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.453085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046639, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.485207, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51000, "relative_activity": 0.801257, "balance": 0.485207, "dry_up": 0.589159, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102154, "annualized_volatility": 0.52249, "from_high_reference": -0.580537, "from_low_reference": 0.096491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.767, "fair_value_reference": 1.650288, "structural_low": 0.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.025418, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.052457, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.176871, "worst_return": -0.300578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.09375, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.151514, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.236715, "worst_return": -0.31, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.18481, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.286645, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.254902, "worst_return": -0.415473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.266476, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.360023, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.145022, "worst_return": -0.367089, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-18", "end": "2022-12-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.406877, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-23", "end": "2023-01-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.167442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2023-02-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040134, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-03-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.042146, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.077821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096639, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023697, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.616564, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.72, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 30225.0, "trend": 2.655667, "fair_value": 2.998077, "relative_strength": 2.980713, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", 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"stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.002344, "energy": 12.834069, "activity_lines": [ 2.678667, 2.697818, 2.671762, 2.649054 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 2.42, "volume": 58000, "typical_volume": 26950.0, "trend": 2.620333, "fair_value": 3.001346, "relative_strength": -11.185841, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.126197, "energy": 23.662236, "activity_lines": [ 2.589333, 2.645091, 2.65019, 2.63529 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 2.37, "volume": 43500, "typical_volume": 26750.0, "trend": 2.61, "fair_value": 3.002115, "relative_strength": -11.82559, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.869576, "energy": 48.57741, "activity_lines": [ 2.501333, 2.588909, 2.624857, 2.61914 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 2.44, "volume": 9000, "typical_volume": 25125.0, 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"typical_volume": 67925.0, "trend": 0.814833, "fair_value": 1.690705, "relative_strength": -49.0171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.317886, "energy": 52.104661, "activity_lines": [ 0.608667, 0.615455, 0.653738, 0.715151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6, "volume": 58500, "typical_volume": 66875.0, "trend": 0.800833, "fair_value": 1.677115, "relative_strength": -47.788125, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.905762, "energy": 48.926409, "activity_lines": [ 0.604333, 0.612364, 0.644976, 0.70129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.61, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 62675.0, "trend": 0.786167, "fair_value": 1.663526, "relative_strength": -46.170361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.306207, "energy": 46.170569, "activity_lines": [ 0.605, 0.611182, 0.6385, 0.688978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.625, "volume": 51000, "typical_volume": 63650.0, "trend": 0.767, "fair_value": 1.650288, "relative_strength": -45.308516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.437199, "energy": 39.806428, "activity_lines": [ 0.610333, 0.612455, 0.634452, 0.678581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }